‘UK reviewing red list for France’: Does the Covid data support this?

The UK is considering adding France to its red travel list due to the spread of the Beta variant of Covid-19 (originally identified in South Africa) - which is said to be more resistant to vaccination - according to media reports in the UK.

However, health authorities and media in France have not reported discernible alarm at the spread of this Beta variant, and France’s national health agency reported in its most recent update (July 8) that the circulation of the variant remains low in metropolitan France.

And a spokesperson for the UK's Department for Transport told The Connexion today (July 16) that she could not confirm the reports that the government was considering putting France on the red list, and that at this stage the media reports were "speculation". She added that the UK's travel list is constantly under review and the status of countries can be changed at any time.

Statistics collected by GISAID, a data initiative that monitors Covid-19 globally in real-time, shows that there have been 88 new cases of the Beta variant in France in the past four weeks, bringing the total to 2,135.

GISAID shows the UK as having four new Beta cases in that time period, and a total of 812 cases. Germany is reported to have 2,197 cases of the variant.

The database, though, does not specify if the cases in France are from the mainland, or the overseas departments, where the prevalence of Beta is higher.

The UK government has not signalled that France will move from its amber travel list in the next update set to come into effect on Monday (July 19). France has, however, tightened rules for people travelling to France from the UK.

The proposal to move France to the red list was raised on Wednesday during a general review of international travel rules, The Telegraph reported. It said government sources stressed that they did not expect any decision to be taken "imminently", adding that the data needed to be analysed in more detail.

The newspaper stated that an analysis by the Joint Biosecurity Centre, a scientific body advising the UK government on Covid matters, formed the basis of the recommendation to move France onto the red list.

The situation could be discussed again on Monday (July 19), The Telegraph stated, basing their report on comments from senior Whitehall sources.

The Beta variant of Covid-19 is marked as a “variant of concern” by France and the World Health Organisation.

This label is given to variants that are more contagious, more virulent or less effective against Covid vaccines.

A recent French study found that two doses of a Covid vaccine is 77% effective against the Beta variant, Le Parisien reported.

The study, led by the Institut Pasteur in collaboration with Assurance Maladie, Ipsos and France’s national health agency Santé publique France, also found that two vaccine doses offered 88% protection against the original Covid strain and 86% protection against the Alpha strain.

What we know about the Beta variant in France in numbers

France is using a combination of screening tests for specific mutations and also the technique of sequencing, which allows scientists to check samples for any possible mutation.

A series of “flash” sequencing studies are being carried out in France every two weeks, where a random sample of Covid-19 PCR tests from around the country is sequenced.

The results of the latest flash study, which is number 12, shows that the Beta variant of Covid-19 represents 100% of cases in Réunion, a French overseas department, but is “circulating at low levels” in metropolitan France, making up 4.5% of the cases analysed.

The graph below shows the evolution of the Beta variant in France in terms of what percentage it makes up of variants detected through sequencing. The Beta variant is orange, the Alpha variant (originally identified in the UK) is blue and the Delta variant is green.

France is also screening tests to detect the Beta variant. Between July 6 and 12, 18,777 random positive PCR tests were screened.

The mutation that causes the Beta variant was found in 1,787 samples, equal to 10.7% of all tests that were screened.

11,256 tests were found to include the L452R mutation, which causes the Delta variant.

Santé Publique France is set to publish its weekly evaluation of Covid-19 later today (July 16). The analysis is usually published every Thursday but was delayed this week due to the Fête nationale on Wednesday (July 14).

This new evaluation is likely to contain more up-to-date figures on the spread of the Beta variant in France.

What French media is reporting about the Beta variant

There has not been any news article published in French recently that highlights any alarm at the spread of the Beta variant in metropolitan France.

Santé Publique France’s latest Covid-19 evaluation published on July 8 does not contain any statement warning of an increase in the spread of the Beta variant.