The money’s now on Marine Le Pen in France's 2027 race

The matter seemed cut and dried. Banned from seeking public office for five years, Marine Le Pen would not be contesting the 2027 French presidential election.

But then her period of disqualification was reduced to 45 months, with most of that suspended; though there is still the possibility, pending an appeal to the Cour de cassation, that she could end up campaigning wearing an electronic tag.

It will be up to that court to decide whether she is actually guilty of the embezzlement of EU funds of which she was convicted.

In around 70% of cases it upholds the lower court’s verdict, so the odds are against her name being cleared.

Those who want to deny her the presidency argue that, should the conviction stand, the French people would not want to elect a convicted criminal as president.

However, there are two arguments against that.

The first is that the rest of the political class in France is so discredited, and Ms Le Pen’s offence something that many other parties have got away with, that it hardly matters.

The second is that the French have voted for enough unconvicted crooks in the past – Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy come at once to mind, the former dying unprosecuted but not the latter – so another one would make little difference.

Political winds

Her dauphin, Jordan Bardella, is apparently doing his best to conceal his disappointment with recent developments.

But for the reduction in Ms Le Pen’s sentence, he would have been the Rassemblement National’s (RN) candidate next year; and, given the way the wind is blowing, could at the ridiculously young age of 31 have found himself president of France.

The big question now is whether that wind might blow his mentrix into the Elysée instead, tag or no tag.

His consolation prize, should she win, is expected to be the post of prime minister under her.

Ms Le Pen’s re-entry into the lists appears to have discombobulated the French political establishment even more than Mr Bardella.

Perhaps the most seismic manifestation of this was that François Hollande – yes, old scooter-riding ‘Monsieur Flamby’ himself – has started to talk about his own renewed presidential ambitions.

Meanwhile, Le Figaro is running speculative articles on what will happen to France if the second round of next year’s elections ends up as a fight between Ms Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

That prospect forced me to cast my mind back to Soumission, that magnificent work by France’s greatest living novelist, Michel Houellebecq.

Published in 2015, the novel was set during the 2022 presidential election. After the first round, the two surviving candidates are Ms Le Pen and Mohammed Ben-Abbes, the (fictional) leader of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The mainstream socialist and conservative candidates are excluded from the final.

The socialists decide, and are supported by the conservatives, to urge their supporters to vote for Ben-Abbes. He wins; France is Islamified.

Houellebecq’s point was not one of crude Islamophobia, but rather to illustrate the lengths to which the French left would go to prevent the hard right from ever holding power, even if it meant compromising or destroying traditional French culture and the nation’s way of life.

Extremes of left and right

Mr Mélenchon is not a Muslim and his party is not some sort of Muslim brotherhood.

However, it is as far to the left as the RN is to the right, and so the first thing to register about such a run-off next year is that the French electorate would not have the option of a centrist or moderate candidate.

That might be the main reason why it won’t happen, except (as in Soumission) by accident.

But if it does, what would the effectively disfranchised Parti Socialiste and Les Républicains do?

Things are not as clear-cut as they were in Houellebecq’s fictional world.

In the novel, antipathy to Ms Le Pen is such that even conservatives reluctantly support the Islamic candidate.

Now, however, some people on the traditional centre-right have no such hostility to Ms Le Pen, notably the former jailbird (and president) Nicolas Sarkozy.

If it comes down to a contest of extremes, La France Insoumise (LFI) probably wins.

Its policies are, in my opinion, fundamentally Bolshevik. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has expressed admiration for aspects of Hugo Chávez's government and, before Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, often advocated closer relations with Russia while making comments viewed as conciliatory toward Vladimir Putin [as did Ms Le Pen].

Ms Le Pen has spent 15 years trying to clean up the basically racist face of her party.

The widespread perception of the failure of Emmanuel Macron’s rule, exemplified in his petulant calling of an election in 2024 that saw France threaten to become ungovernable, has helped improve the RN’s image.

Ready to go

While LFI appears increasingly obsessed with identity politics and a form of Marxism, the RN sounds comparatively statesmanlike.

If the contest is between this pair, the money ought to be on Ms Le Pen to win: her 41% showing in 2022 would be the foundation of her victory, and would be augmented by the perception that, via the courts, the French deep state has been determined to prevent her even getting onto the starting grid.

Barring unforeseen scandals between now and next May, she is ready to go.

France’s only hope of avoiding the hard left or hard right, given the moribundity of the Parti Socialiste, would be to find a popular centre-right candidate.

Second to Ms Le Pen (by far – she has around 35% to his 18%) in opinion polls is Edouard Philippe. He is ahead of Mr Mélenchon, who himself is ahead of Bruno Retailleau.

The left and centre-right both have multiple candidates splitting each other’s votes, which is why anything could happen.

Ms Le Pen has cause to feel confident, though the contest is still over eight months away. Unlike in her previous runs, there is still no obvious alternative to her.

How do you feel about the return of Marine Le Pen to France's political scene after her court battle? Share your view at letters@connexionfrance.com