10 years on: Barnier talks Trump, Johnson, the Queen and what to learn from Brexit

Former French prime minister and EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned that France and Europe face a “wake-up call” and a “moment of truth” in a speech on debt, bureaucracy, Donald Trump, Brexit and Europe’s place in the world.

Mr Barnier, also a former European commissioner, argued France must urgently reform itself while Europe must become more independent in the face of pressure from the US, China and Russia.

“A strong France, a proud France and an independent Europe,” he said. “That is what I believe, is the destiny towards which we must work.”

He was speaking to a packed audience at a talk organised by the Monaco Méditerranée Foundation in the principality, as the 10-year anniversary of the UK's vote to leave the EU approached.

France has three main problems

Mr Barnier, who also served as the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said France was weakened by three major problems: debt, bureaucracy and “everything that discourages initiative and competitiveness”.

“For the past 30 years, we have spent without counting, without checking and without assessing,” he said. “Today, we have a debt of €3.2 trillion.”

He said interest payments alone now cost France €61billion a year and he argued that reducing debt should be viewed as a “youth policy” because future generations would bear the burden.

“Previous generations have, for the past 30 years, been borrowing at rates that are sometimes very high at their expense. And it’s not possible for this to carry on like this; it’s irresponsible,” he said.

“That’s why I took the risk of losing my job as prime minister by doing what I said I would: I wanted to reduce the country’s deficit by one percentage point, from 2024 to 2025. 

“Then we would have had to keep going. And that takes courage; I wasn’t prepared to buy time to remain prime minister at your expense. And I didn’t do it.

“I believe the political parties, in those circumstances – and no more so today – failed to rise to the challenge facing the country by rejecting the compromise budget I proposed.”

Too much bureaucracy

Mr Barnier also criticised what he described as excessive bureaucracy and regulation, claiming that 464 different state-run organisations or agencies have been created in France over the years.

He recounted a recent visit to farmers in Brittany where one farmer showed him a large bundle of paperwork required to obtain permission to build a chicken coop, compared to a much smaller file needed 15 years earlier.

“It was incredibly clear and obvious how, over 15 years, the accumulation of regulations, standards and obligations makes life impossible,” he said.

He referred approvingly to a recent remark by President Emmanuel Macron that rebuilding Notre-Dame cathedral had taken four years while constructing a chicken coop could take more than five.

“The only question I ask myself is why he is only realising this at the end of his second five-year term,” Mr Barnier added.

He criticised the 35-hour work week, for which he said “we are still paying the price”, taxation which he said had increased because of a lack of courage in spending cuts, and a “disorganised” benefits system, which he said sometimes means people who do not work are supported more than those who do.

He also attacked what he called a political culture that discourages initiative, citing a recent “incredible debate” in the Assemblée nationale over whether certain traditional trades such as florists and bakers should be allowed to open on May 1.

He further warned that, having returned to parliament as a Paris MP decades after he once represented Savoie, he sees a level of tension “at times of hatred” in the Assemblée nationale, which on certain issues felt “pre-insurrectionary”.

He stressed the problems he listed are ones the French can only solve for themselves, and he hopes the next president is supported by an absolute majority in the Assemblée, as he could speak from experience as to the difficulties when that is not the case.

“The next president must have the courage to take decisions, to propose decisions to the French people, the courage to tell the truth, perhaps the courage to be unpopular.

“When I was prime minister, there were nothing but hassles [emmerdements], every day, every five minutes, coming at you. There were only difficult decisions to be made. But we have to face up to it.”

Reasons to be positive

Despite his criticisms, Mr Barnier remained optimistic, saying: “There is positive energy everywhere in this country – everywhere, there are reasons for hope in this country.

“And so, everywhere, there are reasons to reinforce this sense of belonging to a national community.”

He added: “What does it mean to be French today: speaking a language, respecting traditions and cultures, and asking those who come to our country to, at the very least, respect these traditions, these cultures and our laws. 

“There is a heritage and an energy that enable us, at times, to combat the feeling of decline experienced by so many French people.”

He also recalled a phrase by Pope Benedict XVI that he said had stayed with him: “Every person is necessary.” 

“I believe this deeply: that every citizen is necessary, that every person has added value, whatever that may be. Whether it be their age or their disability, every person is important.” 

He also spoke of the importance of leaders being respectable, so when people “look up”, they see someone of substance, even if they do not agree with them.

Much of the speech also focused on international affairs and Europe’s future role in a changing world.

France cannot face global challenges alone

“We cannot tackle climate change on our own; we cannot tackle radical Islamism and terrorism on our own; we cannot tackle the digital revolution on our own, nor the superpower status of these American or Chinese companies, which are so much larger and stronger than a state, and which would like to impose their own rules on us” Mr Barnier said.

On climate change, he said this is “going to change everything”, and will require intelligent adaptation, not inaction followed by “frenzies of regulation” which will cause protests. 

While he said he did not wish to be alarmist, he recalled being the first foreign minister to see the catastrophic aftermath of the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, and he said we cannot rule out the possibility that similar events could happen here.

Departments reliant on skiing are likely to be hit, if temperatures rise, as is likely, one to two degrees over the next 20 years. Grape harvests are now three weeks earlier than 20 years ago. Different fish are being fished on the northern coast.

He argued Europe was also now under unprecedented pressure from both the US and Russia. “This is the first time in 60 years the US President has been against the European project,” he said of Donald Trump. 

Mr Barnier said Mr Trump had made “scandalous” remarks about President Macron and warned that repeated attacks on European allies risked damaging long-standing transatlantic ties.

“I am asking how long will it take for Mr Trump to realise that by attacking and humiliating Europeans, he is discouraging his best allies,” he said.

At the same time, he insisted that “Mr Trump is not the United States” and the US remains our ally.

Nonetheless, he argued Europeans now had to accept that they could no longer rely on it as they once did, particularly in defence, which meant leaving a certain comfort zone.

“The Ukrainian crisis has shown that we cannot rely solely on the American defence umbrella in the long term,” he said.

A strong Europe is needed

He called for Europe to strengthen its own industrial, agricultural, defence and foreign policies and to reduce dependency.

Mr Barnier also warned that subsidised Chinese exports threatened entire sectors of European industry.

He cited a visit to a French machine-tool manufacturer who told him that “in four years we may be the only Europeans left standing”.

“Chinese aggression, American aggression, Russian aggression. Ladies and gentlemen, this is today’s world,” he said.

He asked: “How do we defend our identity, our values, our traditions, our European civilisation?

“Is it by going it alone, each to their own, every man for himself – as I hear from a number of French politicians, such as Ms Le Pen, Mr Bardella and Mr Mélenchon, in a sort of nationalist turning in on ourselves?

"I’m not saying everything they say is unfounded on certain issues. I hear the French people; we must listen to them – exasperated, angry, disappointed.

“But on this particular issue, given what is happening all around us, in the world, and the direct impacts – climate change, terrorism, Chinese imports and exports – it is the day-to-day lives of businesses and citizens that are being preserved.

“That is what I would like to convince you of: in this world, as it is, ladies and gentlemen, if we’re on our own, we’re stuffed [foutus]. That’s what I think. 

“We’ll end up as permanent subcontractors to the Chinese and under American influence.”

"I regret Brexit a great deal" 

He returned several times to the issue of Britain’s “divorce” from the EU, which he said “I regret a great deal”.

He said at times the British had viewed it as just a free trade area, but it is much more than that. 

It is a “complete ecosystem” with its own standards, common regulations, joint oversight and a shared legal framework, and this “is the sole reason why, in the medium or long term, the Americans or the Chinese will be forced to respect us” – because they are required to abide by them if they want to deal with the EU.

He was not, however, saying it was perfect. There were sometimes too many norms and regulations and he had met Brussels bureaucrats who were arrogant and thought they were always right. 

But that was not a reason to “throw the baby out with the bathwater” and “scrap the European project and revert to every man for himself, like the British”.

He added: I’ve always had great admiration for the British, and I still do, particularly for certain British leaders such as Queen Elizabeth II or Prime Minister Winston Churchill.

“I have far less admiration for Mr Johnson, but I have always admired the British people, their inventiveness and their capabilities; indeed, it is a country somewhat akin to France in its capacity for spreading its culture and playing an international role. But this divorce remains a major mistake.”

He said it was brought about by populists and nationalists such as Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson, aided by American and Russian networks, aiming to “blow up Europe from within”.

He claimed some of the “same people” recently met with Ms Le Pen.

“I meet many Britons who voted for Brexit and who regret it today, and who made a decision which, I believe, is objectively contrary to the British national interest – which was perhaps, at that time, to leave the EU, but certainly not to leave the single market or the customs union.

“They could very well have left the EU while remaining in the single market, like Norway which today is a large and very powerful country with plenty of oil.”

Why the Brexit negotiations took so long

Mr Barnier also revealed some details of the Brexit negotiations themselves.

“It took me four and a half years to get to a deal with the British,” he said.

“But not just because of the British, who wanted to have their cake and eat it – in Germany they said ‘they want to dance at two weddings at the same time’.

 “It took me a while, because it took time to build unity among the 27. 

“I had to go see each country, each government, parliaments, journalists, trade unions. We had to tell the truth all the time, but not all of it. It takes a lot of time to build credibility.”

Despite defending the European project, Mr Barnier said he did not support a federal superstate. Instead, he argued Europe should remain an alliance of nations that retain their own identities and traditions. “We need nations to combat nationalism,” he said.

Recalling a quip from General de Gaulle, whom he credited with inspiring him to enter politics, Mr Barnier added: “Europe must not grind up its peoples, like you grind chestnuts into chestnut paste. We don’t want to be ground up. Each nation holds onto its differences.”

While he is said to see himself as a possible candidate for president, he did not formally discuss a possible candidacy.

Referring to his appointment as prime minister shortly after a previous Monaco appearance – which he noted wryly had lasted much less time than his job as Brexit negotiator – he remarked: “We shall see what happens next April.”

Asked afterwards about how France could finance necessary future investment without more borrowing, Mr Barnier distinguished between “good debt” used for long-term investment and “bad debt” used to fund everyday state spending.

He suggested encouraging French savings to be channelled into strategic sectors such as AI, quantum technology and reindustrialisation through tax incentives and a possible “sovereignty savings account”.

Mr Barnier concluded by urging Europeans not to become pessimistic or inward-looking despite the scale of current challenges.

“We have absolutely no reason to be fatalistic, no reason to be nostalgic,” he said. “But now is the time to be vigilant, to be courageous, to be more united.”