France heads for fourth heatwave of year next week: highs of 40C forecast

Temperatures are set to rise across all of France next week, sparking concerns over the impact of high temperatures on the country’s drought and wildfire woes. 

Several forecasters and weather models have called the weather pattern a fourth ‘heatwave’, which is expected to impact France for five days from next Wednesday to Sunday (July 29 to August 2). 

This includes La Chaîne Météo (owned by Le Figaro) which predicts a peak in temperatures on Thursday and Friday. 

It predicts a more-than 70% chance of heatwave conditions (and warnings) being reached in the south-west and central areas at the end of next week, and up to a 70% chance in the north and Rhône Valley. 

Only the coastal areas of the north and Mediterranean are unlikely to see heatwave warnings, with cooler sea air keeping daytime temperatures below heatwave thresholds.

Highs of 40C are again possible in south-west and central France, as well as eastern areas near the German border. 

However, state forecaster Météo France is yet to officially dub the conditions a ‘heatwave’ although it is considered likely to do so at the start of next week.

There is a possibility that the heatwave is relatively short.

Four official heatwaves across a single summer have never been officially recorded in France.

Storms before the heatwave

The arrival of storms across the south on Saturday (July 25) will clear the air, bringing temperatures down across the country on Sunday (July 26). 

National average temperatures will fall to the seasonal average for the first time in weeks, with no area set to see a high of 30C or above. 

Temperatures will begin to climb from the start of the week, backed by calm and sunny weather, before a sudden jump on Wednesday. 

This will begin in the south-west, quickly spreading north and east. 

Early forecasts see conditions remaining sunny and calm across this period, which increases the risks associated with a heatwave (official temperature recordings are made in the shade, being outside in the sun can be significantly warmer). 

Thursday’s peak could see national average temperatures reach close to 28C, some 6C warmer than Sunday and well above seasonal norms. 

Heatwave brings several threats

Renewed heatwave alerts risk a fragile healthcare system again being overwhelmed by an influx of patients impacted by the heat. 

Between June 17 and July 2, there were 5,764 excess deaths recorded in France – the highest in a heatwave period since 2003 – announced health authority Santé publique France in a bulletin this week.

Around half of these happened between June 25 and June 27 alone.

Heightened temperatures also increase the risk of wildfires - especially across the south - which are set to reach record numbers this year. 

The south-west – the site of two of the most devastating wildfires this year with nearly 50,000 people evacuated due to blazes – will once again face the brunt of heatwave conditions, contributing to an increased risk of wildfires. 

Hot weather will also do nothing to help with France’s exceptional drought season, which has started several weeks earlier than usual and has resulted in restrictions on water usage implemented in essentially every department. 

Further high temperatures will not only risk evaporating above-ground water but also harden soils, preventing any rainfall from being easily absorbed. 

The country’s agriculture sector is also fearful of the damage of a fourth heatwave, with crops already affected by the record-breaking temperatures in June and unseasonal heat in May.