Marine Le Pen dwarfs rivals in 2027 French presidential election poll

A new poll for France’s 2027 presidential election shows far-right candidate Marine Le Pen dominating the first round - though who might face her in the second round remains an open question with several candidates apparently in the running. 

The poll, carried out by Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, covers six possible configurations of various candidates standing for the election. 

While Marine Le Pen dwarfs all other candidates and comes out with between 34% - 35.5% of first round votes – around 13%-20% more than any other candidate – her potential second round competitor remains less clear. 

Depending on the final configuration of candidates, the second round contestant shifts dramatically.

There is a possibility that the second round could see the far-right pitted against the far-left, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon projected to gain between 14% to 14.5% of the first round vote. 

The 2027 French presidential election is set to be held on April 18. If no candidate achieves more than 50%, the top two candidates will go into a run-off second round on May 2.

Plenty could change before the vote, with more candidates expected to throw their hat in the ring and others to withdraw.

Several leading candidates took part in a debate last week, the first of the campaign.

Who will run? 

As the configurations denote, there are several possibilities for next spring’s elections. 

The Socialist party is yet to pick its candidate, which it will do so in a closed primary in October. 

If the Elabe poll is anything to go by, Raphaël Glucksmann is the best-performing of the three prospective socialist candidates, outperforming both François Hollande and Olivier Faure – although only the latter is so far set to join the October primary. 

It is also worth noting that while the polls account for Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel and Green leader Marine Tondelier running separately, they may pull out and officially join a coalition with the Socialists. 

The parties have increasingly allied themselves in recent years, and while this is not typical for a presidential election (all parties typically run in the first round then back a preferred candidate in the second), the desire to get a candidate through the door to tackle the far-right may see new tactics utilised.

This is particularly the case when the party feels it could capitalise on the growing threat of the far-left and a potentially poor centrist performance. 

Going by the poll, the combined votes of Mr Glucksmann as well as the Communist and Green leaders would be enough to push the party into the second round.

Another potential point of contention is the centrist candidate.

Former prime ministers Gabriel Attal and Edouard Philippe have both declared their candidacy, with the latter typically seen as the individual most likely to join Ms Le Pen in the second round. 

Mr Philippe consistently receives a higher vote share in configurations compared to Mr Attal, enough to put him through to the second round in most configurations.

In a configuration where both candidates run however, Mr Attal would eat into Mr Philippe’s vote, potentially preventing him from reaching the second round. 

On the right, the leading candidate for Les Républicains, Bruno Retailleau, would fail to reach the second round, and is commonly in fifth position. 

Even if the potential votes from other right-wing candidates were added to his own, he would fail to reach the second round. 

Far-left and far-right showdown? 

Barring a catastrophic scandal or unheard-of vote collapse, Ms Le Pen and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) will make it into the second round for the third consecutive presidential election. 

Members of other parties have spent several years preparing for this, with both her and RN leader Jordan Bardella consistently polling ahead of all other parties and candidates.

A growing concern however is that far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon could stun competitors and finish in second place, leading to a shock far-right vs far-left second round showdown. 

Mr Mélenchon, who came fourth in the 2017 election and third in the 2022 election – both times 500,000 votes or fewer off of the second round – is a firebrand politician who thrives in election campaigns. 

The far-left La France Insoumise party tends to benefit from a late surge in the polls during election campaigns following extensive campaigning and groundwork from activists to encourage voters.

In 2017 and 2022 Mr Mélenchon gained between 5% to 10% more votes in the final election than he received in the opinion polls at the turn of the year (around four months before the election). 

If a similar late-campaign surge takes place, it would almost guarantee to put the party in the second round.

How would this impact the Republican Front?

Historically, the far-right has been shut out of French politics via an informal agreement known as the ‘Republican Front’. 

All other parties typically agree to support any candidate going up against the far-right, regardless of their political party, to prevent the far-right from gaining power. 

In the 2017 and 2022 elections, this helped current French President Emmanuel Macron defeat Ms Le Pen in the second round.

It is worth noting that many were unenthusiastic in their support of Mr Macron – particularly in 2022 – and the far-left only urged people to abstain from voting for Ms Le Pen, not actively to vote for the alternative in Mr Macron.

In the 2024 legislative elections, the centrist groups and left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire – consisting of La France Insoumise, Greens, Socialists, and Communists – partly reignited the front. 

Legislative elections can see more than two candidates reach the second round, so in many cases the less popular of the two non-far-right candidates dropped out to prevent vote-splitting. 

However, centrists groups have continually criticised La France Insoumise as extremist – often calling them as extreme as the far-right – and are unlikely to officially back Mr Mélenchon in a second round against Ms Le Pen. 

Similarly, all other left-wing parties have forcefully ruled out any idea of a future alliance with the far-left group, which they say has become too extremist under Mr Mélenchon. 

In this hypothetical second-round, it is unclear who these ‘Republican’ parties would ask voters to back, or if they would simply tell them to avoid voting for either party.