Tornadoes in France are more common than you may think
Certain departments – including site of major tornado this week – are hotspots for phenomenon
The passage of a major tornado at the start of the week through Pomas (Aude) damaged hundreds of buildings and left dozens injured.
In an update on Tuesday afternoon, Aude prefect Alain Bucquet said around 50 people had been injured (up from earlier estimate of 39) with around 20 people taken to hospital in a non-urgent condition.
Updated tallies record 102 homes being completely destroyed, with a further 200 damaged in some way by the tornado.
It means more than half of the 500 properties in the commune have been impacted.
The intensity of the tornado and the destruction left in its wake made headline news, however meteorologists have noted that France is no stranger to tornadoes.
Aude itself is particularly vulnerable to the weather phenomena due to its unique geography.
How do tornadoes form?
The first thing to note is that while tornadoes may be more commonly associated with the US, they are possible in France.
Indeed, up to 50 tornadoes are registered per year in France, with even more too weak or short-lived to be officially recognised.
“In the vast majority of cases, a tornado forms within a thunderstorm,” said co-founder of France’s storm observatory Keraunos Pierre Mahieu to media outlet FranceInfo.
The probability of this is increased when the storm is a supercell, a “violent, long-lasting storm where the cloud rotates,” said Mr Mahieu.
“The key factor is wind shear, or variations in wind speed and direction. If there is an easterly wind near the ground and a westerly wind higher up, these opposing winds create shear, causing the storm cloud to rotate [more aggressively]: this leads to a tornado,” he added.
“That is what happened in the Aude region late Monday: a classic supercell evolved into a tornado due to intense wind shear.”
Other signs include high temperatures – tornadoes are typically a summer phenomenon – heightened atmospheric activity, and the prevalence of opposing wind directions even in non-stormy conditions.
Can tornadoes be predicted?
Tornadoes are “a largely predictable phenomenon,” said Mr Mahieu, with forecasters able to use a wealth of data to pinpoint where they are most likely to appear.
“We establish a weather trend three to four days in advance, allowing us to quickly determine if the storms will be supercellular. As the event approaches, models become more refined, and we can pinpoint the geographic area,” he added.
This applies first to a specific department, and then to a more localised area, such as a plain or valley.
State forecaster Météo France does not have a specific tornado warning, but areas impacted by tornadoes are usually under storm alerts.
However, it does give information about the possibility of tornadoes or tornado-like conditions in some of its more detailed local bulletins.
On Monday, for example, it highlighted the risk of “powerful wind gusts of 90km/h to 120km/h, accompanied very locally by vortex phenomena,” in the Aude and Hérault departments.
Despite all the data available, it remains impossible to accurately predict the intensity of a tornado, as well as its exact passage.
“There were a number of telltale signs, but you can never be 100% certain,” said meteorologist Fabien Delacour, who runs the ‘Extrême météo’ blog, to media outlet Le Monde regarding Monday’s tornado.
“A supercell is impossible to pinpoint precisely, which explains the lack of a [direct] warning,” he added.
Aude is ‘perfect storm’ for tornado creation
While tornadoes are possible across all of France, there are certain areas where they are more common.
This includes Normandy, Hauts-de-France, much of Brittany, the western coast around La Rochelle and north of Bordeaux, parts of Provence, as well as pockets of the Loire Valley.
Aude and Hérault are also included in this list, forming some of the highest-risk areas.
This is down to the unique geography of the southern departments.
“The Aude department has a unique feature: it is a Mediterranean department with a large plain running from west to east, surrounded by rugged mountain ranges. This layout is believed to foster wind shear, and consequently, tornadoes,” said Mr Mahieu.
In addition, winds formed during stormy periods often run counter-directional to the ‘Autan’ winds blowing in the area, further increasing the likelihood of wind shear.
Are tornadoes becoming more common?
Scientists are now questioning if changes in weather patterns, including longer and hotter summers, will increase the risk and intensity of future tornadoes that hit France.
“What we have observed by analysing data from the last eight years is that the risk of hailstorms and heavy rain increases with warmer temperatures,” said Mr Mahieu.
“However, regarding tornadoes, there is no correlation between temperature and the level of risk.”
“Temperature alone is not enough to draw a conclusion; atmospheric flow and multiple other parameters play a role in the formation of such a complex phenomenon,” he added.
Despite the powerful tornado in Aude – and one earlier this year near Saint-Etienne – 2026 has been a quieter-than-usual summer for tornadoes, with only nine registered as of August 26.
This is far off the summer average of 30, and comes despite the summer consisting of several record-breaking heatwaves.
