Fuel prices in France: outlook 'extremely uncertain'

Will a new round of tensions in the Middle East cause petrol prices in France to rise? If so it will impact millions of drivers in France but it seems that no one – not even the government – yet has an answer. 

Petrol prices have climbed back up to around €2 per litre at the start of the week, increasing 6.8 cents over a seven-day period. This is a one-month high, after falling below €2 per litre in mid-June.

During the last two weeks, the renewed conflict in the Middle East between US/Israel and Iran has continued to escalate, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

The strait is critical to global trade, providing a route for some 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies to pass through.

Its closure in March and April led to increasing fuel prices.

The sudden increase in the price of fuel led European governments to implement emergency policies, which in France included a high-mileage fuel aid and support for the logistics sector. 

A fragile ceasefire in June and the resumption of traffic in the strait for calmed fears and lowered prices. However the new tensions, which have seen the strait subject to attacks and the resulting impact on shipping traffic, have renewed uncertainties. 

On Wednesday (July 22), service station giant TotalEnergies announced the return of its €1.99 per litre cap on petrol at all service stations for an unspecified period. 

A €2.25 per litre cap on diesel has also been reinstated, however current diesel prices are around €2.13 per litre and so are below this cap. 

Diesel prices have increased around 10.8 cents in the last week.

What is the future of fuel prices in France?

The government is struggling with price fluctuations. 

“I understand that this is difficult for many of our fellow citizens who have been dealing with these price hikes since last February, involving fluctuations that are hard to predict,” said government spokesperson Maud Bregeon to France 2 on Tuesday (July 21).

The administration is “vigilant” over current prices but is yet to implement new measures. 

Ms Bregeon however pointed to the €100 fuel aid scheme for high-mileage drivers, which is running until July 30, 2026. 

She did not comment on whether the measure would be extended. 

During the crisis at the start of the year, the government repeatedly refused to consider cutting VAT on fuel sales or other tax cuts, citing that it would lead to a budget deficit of billions. 

In June the Conseil des prélèvements obligatoires agreed with the government and recommended against such a measure.

You can keep up with fuel prices using the official government website here.