May speech points to ‘hard Brexit’

While calling the phrase a ‘false dichotomy’, Mrs May nonetheless pointed to what commentators call a ‘hard Brexit’ – with no membership of the wider EEA or Efta groupings of countries, just “an agreement between an independent, sovereign United Kingdom and the European Union”. EEA or Efta membership (such as held by Norway or Switzerland) would have protected most of expats’ EU rights on matters such as pensioners' healthcare or pension uprating but would have required accepting free movement rights.

In a keynote speech to the Conservative Party conference which made no reference to expatriates either in the UK or in the EU, Mrs May said Britain will “decide for ourselves how we control immigration”, but at the same time “want[s the Brexit deal] to involve free trade in goods and services" – a combination many commentators say may be hard to negotiate, as leading EU figures have called the ‘four freedoms’ (of goods, capital, services and workers) non-negotiable for membership of the single market in trade.

Mrs May also outlined a way forward for the application of EU law in the UK. She said a ‘Great Repeal Bill’ will abolish the European Communities Act 1972 which gives EU law power in the UK, with effect from the date of Brexit, but at the same time all existing EU law will be adopted en masse into British law, to be repealed piecemeal in the future if desired and compatible with the final Brexit deal. Any repeals would then be subject to full parliamentary debate, Mrs May said.

A full analysis of the impact of this pledge on EU expats in the UK is unclear, but it may offer some protection to the ‘acquired rights’ of those who are there and some hope of the EU reciprocating for British expats.

However Mrs May’s only explicit reassurance on continued rights was that “existing workers’ legal rights will continue to be guaranteed in law as long as I am Prime Minister”.

Brexit Minister David Davis referred to expat rights in his speech. He said: "When it comes to the negotiations, we will protect the rights of EU citizens here, so long as Britons in Europe are treated the same way - something I am absolutely sure we will be able to agree…

"But the clear message from the referendum is this - we must be able to control immigration…

"Let us be clear, we will control our own borders and we will bring the numbers down."

Following yesterday’s announcements the pound to euro exchange rate is down 1 percentage point at a new low of €1.14. That is 20% down from a high point of €1.43 in November last year.