France weather outlook: cooler in north, high temperatures to remain in south

Heatwave conditions will continue across much of the south until at least Tuesday, accompanied by strong winds and an elevated wildfire risk, while the rest of the country is set for a largely settled week with temperatures close to seasonal averages.

Six departments remain on orange heatwave alert on Monday, as the hottest conditions gradually shift westwards from Provence towards Occitanie and the south-west.

Sunday (July 19) brought another day of exceptional heat in Provence, with Cogolin (Var) reaching 40.9C, setting a new heat record for July. Temperatures also exceeded 40C in several other parts of Var and Bouches-du-Rhône.

Forecast for the week 

Monday: The hottest conditions remain across the Mediterranean and spread into Occitanie and southern Nouvelle-Aquitaine. Afternoon temperatures of 35C to 38C are expected across much of the southern third of France, with local highs of up to 40C in Midi-Pyrénées.

The rest of the country will enjoy sunny conditions with temperatures around 25C in the north after a notably cool start to the day, with lows below 10C in parts of Normandy and Hauts-de-France. Some cloud is expected north of the Seine, while isolated afternoon thunderstorms remain possible over higher ground in Occitanie.

Tuesday to Thursday: Little change is expected as high pressure keeps conditions settled and dry across most of France.

Morning temperatures in the north will generally range from 10C to 15C, rising to 24C to 27C during the afternoon. In the south, temperatures above 30C to 35C will continue from the Garonne valley to the Mediterranean coast.

Mistral and Tramontane winds are expected to strengthen on Tuesday, with gusts of around 60km/h, increasing the wildfire risk around the Mediterranean.

Friday onwards: Temperatures may begin rising again later in the week, particularly in northern France, if very warm air moves north from the Iberian peninsula as high pressure shifts east. Confidence in this scenario remains lower.

Extreme fire risk continues

The combination of prolonged heat, very dry vegetation and strengthening winds is maintaining an extreme wildfire risk around the Mediterranean coast.

Although temperatures in Provence are expected to ease slightly from Tuesday, forecasters warn that dry mistral winds will continue to dry vegetation and could allow any fires to spread rapidly.

Very warm nights also continue in the south, with overnight temperatures remaining between 20C and 24C in many areas, and 24C to 29C locally in Corsica. Meanwhile, much of northern France continues to experience much cooler nights, highlighting the sharp contrast between the two halves of the country.