French weekly weather forecast October 27 - 31: storm risk but warm
Heavy rain is expected in the south at the end of the week
Stormy conditions could see severe weather alerts raised in the south, especially for heavy rain
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A short spell of calm weather midweek will be bookended by unsettled conditions, with clouds, rain, and the risk of storms sweeping across much of France at the beginning and end of the week.
Despite this, temperatures are set to climb and remain significantly higher than average into November. From Thursday, national average temperatures will reach between 3C and 4C above normal for the season until around November 5.
Monday October 27
Rain from the British Isles will cover the northern three quarters of France, reaching as far as the Alps.
Drizzle will hit the south-west in the morning before clearing in the afternoon, and gales of up to 100 km/h are possible in the southern Alps, Provence, and Corsica, despite the areas remaining dry.
No heightened weather alerts are in place for this although some less severe tier-two warnings in the east for heavy rain/flash flooding, higher river levels, and strong winds have been raised.
Alerts over snowy road conditions are in place in the Savoie and Haute-Savoie departments, as snow tyre rules begin on November 1.
Skies in the north will be cloudy following the passage of rain but it will remain dry and mostly sunny along the Mediterranean.
Highs of around 12C - 14C are likely across much of France, dropping to around 10C in the Massif Central.
The south-west may see highs or around 15C, and the Mediterranean up to 20C.
Tuesday October 28
Tuesday will see rain limited to the English Channel and parts of the Hauts-de-France department.
Thick cloud coverage north of the Loire will prevent any significant sunshine, however it will be progressively sunnier in the south with clear skies expected around the Mediterranean.
Winds in the south will temporarily die down, leading to the calmest day of the week.
Temperatures of around 14C to 15C in the north, and up to 19C in the south, see the beginning of the warm spell that will remain in France for the next two weeks.
Wednesday October 29
The respite will be short-lived, as rain stretches across most of the south (sparing only the Pyrénées) and centre.
The north will escape rain but will be largely cloudy.
Temperatures will remain similar to on Tuesday, and potentially reach up to 25C in the foothills of the Pyrénées due to the foehn effect.
Thursday October 30
A calm and sunny day for much of the country will turn in the afternoon as heavy rain hits the south and south-east.
Temperatures of up to 16C in the north, 17C in the west, and 23C in the south are likely and only small showers in Brittany and the eastern Mediterranean are expected before the evening.
As evening approaches, however, potentially severe thunderstorms will hit the south-east, potentially bringing an épisode cévenol to the area.
At the same time, storms in the Pyrénées are possible, and showers will cover essentially all of centre and northern France, with only the Rhine area likely to stay completely dry.
It is unclear how severe storms in the south will be, but early forecasts predict heavy rain and the risk of flooding. It is recommended that people in the area check official warnings closer to the time.
Friday October 31
Rain will return, covering most of the country bar the south-west and Pyrénées, but stormy conditions are not expected.
Temperatures will remain high, once again around 15C in the north and 19C in the south.
Early forecasts for the weekend show pockets of rain continuing along the English Channel and Mediterranean, but sunny and warmer-than-average weather elsewhere.
