Highs of 36C in south-west France expected this week - then a big drop

Highs of 35C or above are expected in south-west France at the end of this week as a mid-summer feel comes early. This is significantly higher than first forecast.

However, the area could then see a temperature drop of nearly 15C over the weekend. 

Forecasts initially pointed to above average temperatures across France on Thursday and Friday. The south-west in particular was set to benefit from a high-pressure wind system from the Azores, with highs of around 30C.

Meteorologists however have revised their predictions and are now pointing towards higher temperatures, with the high-pressure system more powerful than first thought. 

Higher temperatures will come slightly earlier in the south-west, reaching around 31C tomorrow (May 20). Elsewhere, warmer conditions are still expected to arrive later in the week.

Coastal areas in the south-west and the Pyrénées foothills may see temperatures of around 35C, locally rising to 36C on Friday (May 22), around 10C above average for the end of May. 

South of the border in Spain it will be even warmer, with thermometers closer to 40C. 

Other areas in France will also see temperatures higher than initially forecast: Toulouse and Lyon will both see highs of around 32C, and temperatures of 30C are forecast as far north as Brittany. 

All regions will see temperatures of 25C or more, except for the Riviera, where it will reach around 23C.

Save for coastal Brittany, these high temperatures will come alongside ample sunshine, making the real ‘feel’ of temperatures even warmer (official recordings are taken in the shade without accounting for effects such as sun, wind, etc). 

Cold air mass threatens weekend 

However, forecasters are less sure of conditions over the weekend, and there is a potential for both rain and cooler temperatures to return. 

State forecaster Météo France is warning of a potential ‘cold drop’ (goutte froide) of air passing across France from the south-west to the east. 

Located around 5,000m above sea level, the mass of cold air can cause instability such as rain and storms, as well as bringing temperatures down along its path.

It is unpredictable in nature and forecasters are unsure of its impact – if any – across France outside of the south-west.

Current weekend forecasts on the Météo France website still point towards plenty of sunshine, with rain limited to the southern Alps. Note that earlier forecasts predicted bouts of rain across the country due to the goutte froide, but this has since been revised.

Temperatures will drop from Friday’s highs but remain above average for the season, potentially reaching between 26C - 30C in most places.

The impact of the goutte froide in the south-west however will see temperatures begin to yo-yo. Current forecasts for Saturday (May 23) see highs of around 22C in Biarritz, nearly 15C cooler than on Friday. Lows of around 18C are nearly 20C cooler.

In all cases, residents and visitors should keep a close eye on weather forecasts for the coming days, particularly in the south-west, as the impact of the goutte froide becomes clearer.