Latest poll shows Marine Le Pen widening lead in 2027 election

Marine Le Pen continues to lead the race for France’s 2027 presidential election, with a new poll showing an uncertain contest for second place.

The latest survey, conducted by OpinionWay for Les Échos and Radio Classique on October 13 and 14, puts the Rassemblement National leader on between 35% and 37% of first-round voting intentions, depending on which candidates stand.

Her score has risen since September’s survey in all three scenarios tested.

The survey questioned 978 registered voters, drawn from a representative sample of 1,043 adults in France. 

Under France’s two-round presidential election system, the two candidates with the most votes in the first round qualify for the run-off.

OpinionWay gives a margin of uncertainty of between 1.6 and 3.5 percentage points for first-round voting intentions, depending on the score. This means that small differences between candidates should be treated with caution, making the fight for second place all the more uncertain.

The results show Raphaël Glucksmann gaining support, while former prime minister Édouard Philippe has lost ground.

Le Pen leads in all three scenarios

OpinionWay tested three possible candidate line-ups, depending on whether Mr Philippe and fellow former prime minister Gabriel Attal both stand.

In the first scenario, where both men are candidates, Ms Le Pen receives 35% of first-round voting intentions.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing La France Insoumise, comes second with 14%, followed by Mr Glucksmann on 13%.

Mr Philippe receives 12%, down from 15% in September, while Mr Attal polls at 7%.

When Mr Attal is the only centrist candidate, Ms Le Pen’s score rises to 37%, up from 34% in September.

Mr Glucksmann comes second in this scenario with 16%, ahead of Mr Mélenchon on 15%. Mr Attal receives 11%.

In the third scenario, where Mr Philippe is the only centrist candidate, Ms Le Pen polls at 35%, compared with 34% in September.

Mr Philippe, Mr Mélenchon and Mr Glucksmann are all level on 15%. Mr Philippe’s score has fallen from 19% in September, while Mr Glucksmann’s has risen from 10%.

Glucksmann gains ground

Mr Glucksmann, co-president of the left-wing Place Publique party, has gained four to five percentage points across the three scenarios tested by OpinionWay.

The increase follows his victory in the Socialist Party primary, although it remains too early to know whether his support will continue to rise as the campaign develops.

He could attract voters who want a left-wing alternative to Mr Mélenchon. However, the figures do not establish how much support either candidate could gain or lose if other left-wing parties were to unite behind a single candidate.

In previous discussions about the 2027 race, the possibility of a broader left-wing alliance has also been raised, potentially bringing together the Socialists, Place Publique, the Greens and the Communists. 

Mr Mélenchon remains competitive, polling between 14% and 15% in the three scenarios. 

This means that the race for second place could depend on both which centrist candidates stand and whether left-wing parties decide to unite behind a single candidate.