France 2027 presidential vote: polls show tight race for second place

Marine Le Pen maintains a commanding lead in polls for the 2027 presidential election, but it is still far from clear who will oppose her in the second round. 

Ms Le Pen, representing the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is polling at an average of 33.5% to 34% when results from major recent surveys are combined, depending on the composition of candidates facing her.

This is based on analysis of several polls from media outlet L’internaute, and while Ms Le Pen’s polling figures drop to as low as 30%, or as high as 35% depending on the polls, she maintains a commanding lead – at least 10%, often over 15% – above the next highest-placed candidate. 

Barring a scandal or a catastrophic vote collapse, she seems all but certain to enter the second round of the presidential election for the third consecutive time. 

As a reminder, if no candidate obtains more than 50% of the vote in the first round, the top two highest-placed candidates from the first round go into a head-to-head run-off. 

The presidential election will be held on April 18 2027, with the second round on May 2. 

Far-left high in polls 

The spot for the second-round remains fiercely contested, and based on the opinion polls could see any of three main candidates face off against Ms Le Pen. 

The one constant in the polls is the presence of far-left populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who will represent La France Insoumise in the election. 

He is polling at an average of 15.5% when polls are combined, but as high as 18% in some surveys, placing him either in second or third place in first round polling. 

Mr Mélenchon, who came within touching distance of the second round in 2017 and 2022, is banking on his reputation as a strong campaigner to gain ground during the campaign season. 

In these earlier elections, he saw his polling figures improve considerably in the final couple of months of campaigning, climbing several percentage points.

Unlike other candidates looking to pick up floating voters or get voters to switch allegiances to them, his main way of gaining voters will come from convincing those who do not typically vote to give him their support.

Much of his voter base comes from the younger cohorts, especially students, as well as immigrants, second- and third-generation citizens and residents in France’s poorer urban and suburban areas (the banlieues) outside major cities.

Other candidates have denounced his party as extremist, and have ruled out any further attempts to work with them. 

He subsequently suffers in polls for a hypothetical second-round run-off against Ms Le Pen and finishes a comprehensive second behind her.

Centrist candidates

In polls where Mr Mélénchon finishes third, it is behind Edouard Philippe, a centre-right candidate. 

Current mayor of Le Havre and the first prime minister of President Emmanuel Macron’s tenure, Mr Philippe is seen as a safe pair of hands against the far-left and far-right. 

So far, he is the only candidate who has polled ahead of Ms Le Pen in a direct run-off.

This is something he will no doubt focus on in his first-round campaign, positioning himself as the only candidate who can effectively beat the far-right in the second round by appealing to enough voters across a broad political spectrum. 

He is currently polling at between 17% to 19%, gaining votes from the centrist bloc as well as the right, where he has positioned himself economically on the early campaign trail.

However, fellow former prime minister and centrist Gabriel Attal has also announced his candidacy, and so far seems to have no intention of pulling out of the race. 

In polls with both candidates running the centrist vote is split, leaving Mr Philippe out of contention for the second round. In those with only Mr Attal present, he fails to poll above 14%, often leaving him fourth and never second.

Will left run combined ticket?

The final candidate currently in the running for the second round is Raphaël Glucksmann, co-president of Place Publique, a left-wing party closely affiliated with the Socialist Party. 

Mr Glucksmann will run in the Socialist Party primary in October against candidates including party leader Olivier Faure but is by all accounts expected to win and represent both parties on a combined ticket. 

He is currently polling between 10% and 13%, enough to place third or fourth but never second. 

In several recent elections however, the Socialists and Place Publique have combined with the Greens and Communists to run on a joint-ticket. 

While this is uncommon for presidential elections (where all parties typically nominate a candidate and then back their preferred option in the second-round) the high-stakes nature of 2027 may see the parties all combine to back a single candidate. 

If this happens, it can be assumed the vote share of Marine Tondelier of the Greens (around 4%) and Fabien Roussel of the Communist Party (2% - 3%) can be added to Mr Glucksmann’s, bolstering his chances of finishing second. 

Bruno Retailleau, representing the right-wing Les Républicains, is some distance from second place in any poll, typically receiving around 8% of the vote share, but as much as 10% in cases where Mr Attal runs instead of Mr Philippe for the centrist bloc. However, he never finishes above fifth place, well behind the candidates mentioned above.

Other candidates including Dominique de Villepin (3.5%), Eric Zemmour (3% to 5%) and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan all fall on the right or far-right of the spectrum, and their support is unlikely to be transferred to any of the candidates nearing the second round. 

Voters of Mr Zemmour and Mr Dupont-Aignan are indeed more likely to back the far-right in the second-round than a non-RN candidate. 

You can see an interactive table of all the major polls and candidates on the L’internatute website.