Gas prices forecast to increase 5.8% in France in December

Gas prices are set to rise once again in December, making it the fourth consecutive month to see rates increase.

While drivers are benefiting from prices dropping at the pumps after 10 million barrels of diesel (gazole) were released from state reserve stocks, households with gas contracts will see costs to power their home continue to rise. 

Current estimates suggest gas prices will rise by around 5.8% in December. 

The final figure will be confirmed by the Commission de régulation de l'énergie (CRE) later in the month when it announces the benchmark tariff prices for the coming month. 

The increase will apply to households on indexed contracts, tied to the benchmark rate set by the CRE, around 60% of all gas contracts in France. 

Broken down into its two primary uses, the average price per kWh for cooking and hot water will increase from €0.1903 to €0.2015, an increase of 5.9% and for heating, it will rise from €0.1576 to €0.1688, an increase of 7.1%.

The 5.8% figure represents the overall average increase in the gas reference price. It is lower than the other two figures because it also includes fixed subscription charges, which are not expected to increase next month. 

There are also no plans to increase transportation or distribution fees or taxes (which are typically passed on to consumers), helping to bring down the overall average.  

Households on fixed-rate contracts should not see prices change next month, as prices are locked in at a set rate. 

Fourth month of increases

The December increase will come after three consecutive months of sharp increases - 5.6% in September, 6.3% in October, and 6.6% in November. 

National statistics body Insee reports that energy prices have already increased by 24.1% this year, with gas facing even higher increases. 

The main factor behind the increase in gas prices is the conflict in the Middle East between US/Israel and Iran, which has affected global shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG). 

Around 20% of global LNG supplies travel through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been impacted by the conflict for several months and is currently partially closed. Certain gas production facilities in the Middle East have also been damaged during the conflict. 

Europe was already struggling to provide enough gas to power households, as supply of Russian gas has likewise been impacted by conflict since the outbreak of the 2022 War in Ukraine. 

It is now turning to alternative sources, including Canada – set to become the first ‘associate member’ of the EU – but this will not prevent costs from increasing this winter. 

Households concerned across board

Price increases have hit households hard over the past year. 

A four-person household will have to pay an average of €2,410 per year to heat an average-sized home with gas as of November 2026, according to energy comparison website HelloWatt. 

This is €740 more than in January, with the brunt of increases caused by geopolitical tensions. 

Although electricity prices have been spared from as much disruption this year, they have still increased significantly in recent years.

Energy comparison website Selectra estimates that the average regulated electricity bill has risen by 29.8% since 2021, climbing from €1,026 to €1,331.

Households are now increasingly concerned about these prices, according to a report released this week by France’s Médiateur national de l'énergie (national energy ombudsman). 

The vast majority of households – 89% – believe energy prices are a ‘fairly significant’ or ‘very significant’ concern for their budget. This is up from 70% in 2019, and the highest figure since 2007. 

In turn, “86% of households consider energy bills to be a significant burden on their budget,” said the ombudsman, and 84% attempt to alter lifestyle to reduce energy consumption at home.

In addition, 34% reported they struggled to pay a bill. 

This is up from 18% in 2020, and for people under 35, more than half (55%) have encountered difficulties this year.

It is worth noting the report uses information gathered in September, before the increases of October and November. 

While households generally support the transition to clean electricity, concerns over high costs are holding them back. In total 60% of households said they believed electrifying their home energy source was of environmental and economic benefit, but they lacked the financial resources to do so.