November polls for 2027 election: Le Pen lead grows as centrists seek ways to unite

Opinion polls continue to point to a runoff between the far-left and the far-right in France’s 2027 presidential election. 

Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, representing the Rassemblement National (RN) and La France Insoumise (LFI) respectively, continue to poll at first and second place for the first round of the elections, set to be held on April 18.

They have cemented their position in first and second place in all the mainstream polls for the first-round election. 

This includes surveys by Ipsos, Harris, Ifop, Cluster17, Odoxa, and OpinionWay, with Ms Le Pen first and Mr Mélenchon second in every iteration.

This includes different scenarios, including one where Edouard Philippe represents centrist parties, and one where Gabriel Attal stands for the centrist bloc. 

It is only in surveys by the polling group Elabe that Mr Mélenchon is not in second place, overtaken by both Mr Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann, representing the Socialist Party ticket following his victory in the party’s primary (Mr Glucksmann is the co-founder of the left-wing Place Publique party). 

If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a runoff between the top two candidates will take place on May 2.

Polls show rising support for Le Pen

The polls have a wide spread of results for the two. Despite always coming in first place, Ms Le Pen receives between 32.5% and 38% in the polls. 

Most polls have seen her projected vote share increase following the October 17 protests, which saw widespread looting and violence.

It is worth noting that the current polling took place before the results of the US midterms, which saw a massive electoral defeat for US president Donald Trump’s Republican party, and which some analysts suggest could have repercussions for the far-right in France.  

The RN took a harsh stance on the matter, and looked to add additional penalties on those found guilty of rioting under a proposed ‘rioter pays’ law. 

In contrast, Mr Mélenchon has suffered slightly, following his party’s support for the various protests held across October (including the gilets jaunes protests and lycée pupil demonstrations). 

When polls are averaged out, Ms Le Pen has seen her projected vote share increase by four percentage points in scenarios where Mr Philippe is running - to 37% – and by three percentage points where Mr Attal is running, to 36%. 

Mr Mélenchon has seen his drop by one percentage point in ‘Philippe’ scenarios and two percentage points in ‘Attal’ scenarios, projected to receive 17.5% in both. 

A full breakdown is available on the L’Internaute website. 

Will centrists compromise? 

Presidential elections do not typically see first-round alliances, and run on a general idea that all parties and groups promote their own candidates before coalescing around their preferred option in the second round.

The threat of a far-left against far-right run-off, however, could see things change.

Mr Philippe receives an average of 15% in all polls, putting him in third position, and Mr Attal receives 11%, putting him fourth and bumping Mr Glucksmann up to third with 13.5%. 

Currently, both Mr Philippe and Mr Attal are assumed to be running, but are expected to reach a compromise which will see one of them drop out to prevent vote splitting. 

There are calls for a wider ‘primary’ between centrist and right-wing politicians to prevent further vote splitting. 

Mr Attal said he believes it is “inevitable” that a primary will take place, even though Mr Philippe has refused the idea and said it was divisive.

"A primary is not what causes division… division is what happens when five [similar] candidates show up for the first round,” said Mr Attal on Monday. 

This hypothetical primary would include Mr Attal, Mr Philippe, and several right-wing candidates including right-wing Cannes mayor David Lisnard, who has recently announced ambitions to run.

Bruno Retailleau, head of the right-wing Les Républicains, would also be included, although he has reportedly set strict conditions for his inclusion in the primary.

“The cataclysm that a runoff between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen would represent is far more serious than any differences that might exist between me and other candidates,” said Mr Attal. 

In theory, the successful candidate of a right-wing primary, combining the current projected votes of all centrist and right-wing candidates, would easily enter second place behind Ms Le Pen. 

However, there is no guarantee that voters would switch support to the winning candidate if their preferred candidate lost the primary. They could for instance choose to side with Ms Le Pen instead.

It is assumed that Mr Glucksmann, hovering between 11% to 13.5% in the polls, would be buoyed by the support of allies in the Greens and Communist Party.

The latter are currently planning to run their own candidates, polling at between 1% to 3.5% each in the polls depending on pollster and scenario. 

If they dropped out of the race to back Mr Glucksmann’s campaign, these voters would be likely to give their votes to him, boosting the Socialist Party candidate’s chances of reaching the second round. 

Time is running out, however, for such formal alliances to be made. 

Will president pull off ‘grand coalition’? 

Several twists and turns are expected before the first round of elections, with current French President Emmanuel Macron attempting to pull off one of the most ambitious.

Mr Macron is largely absent from presidential discussions, partly because he cannot run for a consecutive third term but also because he is in a unique position for a president under the Fifth Republic.

His party, itself only created as part of his bid for the 2017 presidential election, has been crowded out on all sides by extremists or traditional groups, and since 2022 he has not had an absolute majority in the Assemblée nationale, instead relying on coalitions and minority governments.

Unlike established parties such as the Socialists or Les Républicains, who have an established structure in place to bounce back after poor results, the party has fractured and could not run a victorious campaign, and indeed is seen as ephemeral without Mr Macron in power.

In addition, the president is unlikely to back an ally for the election – even though two of his former prime ministers and former interior minister are currently running  – not least because his low approval ratings mean relatively few people would be swayed by his public support.

Instead, he is hoping to carve out a ‘grand coalition’ running from the Socialists to right-wing Les Républicains and potentially even further to the right, including Mr Lisnard, providing a common front against perceived extremism on either end of the political spectrum. 

Mr Macron is reportedly looking to bring forces together, not through a primary for the presidential election but discussions on an agreed policy programme approved by several parties, under the guise of necessary ‘compromise’ against the RN and LFI.

This is an audacious proposal. Attempts to find compromise between parties have been necessary since 2022, when Mr Macron lost his majority in the Assemblée nationale, but have largely failed.

France has for two consecutive years failed to pass its budget on time due to a lack of support from MPs, and it is possible that this year’s budget also fails to pass before the December deadline, plunging the country into further economic turmoil. 

Groups will bring their own red lines to the table on matters including pension reform, immigration, defence, spending, and welfare, many of which will overlap. 

Whether Mr Macron is able to pull off this feat remains to be seen, but for some, they see it as the only chance for a non-extremist president over the coming years.