Could a price war push down diesel costs in France even further?

Are drivers in France set to benefit from a price war at the pumps? 

The gradual injection of 10 million barrels of reserve stocks of diesel (gazole) by the French government has had an almost immediate effect at the pumps, with E.Leclerc service stations dropping the price of the fuel by 21c per litre, and a similar policy at SuperU stations.

For their part, petrol prices have been slowly dropping for a few weeks, down from record highs in September.

The drop in prices at E.Leclerc service stations is higher than the government’s estimate of 12c - 18c per litre, but the supermarket could already be outflanked by one of its main competitors. 

CEO of energy giant TotalEnergies Patrick Pouyanné took aim at rivals during the company’s ‘Energy Outlook’ presentation, detailing forecasts for global energy supplies up to 2060. 

“So what?” he said in reference to the E.Leclerc price drop announcement. “If they set the price of diesel at €2.15, I’ll set it at €2.14. We will always be cheaper,” reported media outlet Le Figaro.

TotalEnergies had already pledged to reduce its fuel cap of €2.25 per litre on diesel to €2.15 from October 31 at hundreds of service stations in France. 

In general, prices should drop across all fuel stations, but exact costs will continue to vary between stations based on fuel availability, internal policies, profit margins, etc. 

The graphic below from the data website VisActu shows average diesel prices across the twelve major service station groups in France on Monday, November 2, at 13:00.

The reserve barrels have been sold at cost-price to suppliers, who must pass down the reduced costs of the fuel directly to consumers.

Major fuel suppliers will meet with the government today to assess the situation following the start of barrels being released.

Nationally, diesel prices have dropped by around 9.3c on average since last week and are now at €2.26 per litre, according to unofficial price tracker Carbu. 

Full government figures on average costs will not be available until next week, but VisActu estimates that diesel prices have fallen by around 11c per litre based on its own tracking of available government figures.

Drivers can use the official ‘prix carburant’ website to check fuel costs at stations near them. 

Will prices stay low long-term? 

Drivers are breathing a small sigh of relief as prices drop, although they remain far above prices before the conflict in the Middle East began in February 2026. 

Experts are forecasting that the current reprieve will not last long, however, and only sustained peace between the US/Israel and Iran will lead to a sustained price drop. 

There are reports that the US is planning new strikes against Iran, which could further disrupt supplies and see any decrease in prices essentially wiped out by a further limit on supply.

The main issue continues to be the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for around 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas trade. 

Transit through the Strait remains fraught, and even if supplies are making it through, additional precautions are increasing costs.

This includes higher insurance premiums on oil, as well as new methods, such as using one ship to travel the Strait itself, before loading supplies onto another ship to make the longer journey towards Europe. 

It is only once there is sustained peace in the region, a full re-opening of the Strait without additional precautions, and repairs to production infrastructure take place, that long-term price drops are envisioned. 

Europe will not face shortages of gas this winter, Mr Pouyanné said, but the guarantee of supply may lead to higher prices. 

“Europe will pay more to be served,” he said, but this would lead to an increase in gas and fuel prices, either immediately at the pump, through higher bills, or keeping prices higher once the situation returns to normal. 

“Collectively, we had established a highly efficient system based on just-in-time supply. Today, to be resilient, one must be willing to sacrifice some economic efficiency.”

Long-term, as many countries look towards energy self-sufficiency, Europe will need to come up with its own measures to guarantee supplies.