France’s property market is stabilising (and why this is not a bad thing)
Five key points from the most recent French notaire data
France’s property market is not on the brink of a crisis, but external factors are leading to a slowdown in sales and price increases, Notaires de France said in its latest report.
This, however, is a sign of the market’s continued restructuring towards stability, and should not be viewed negatively.
The quarterly publication from notaires is the most comprehensive in France, covering the sale of all non-new-build houses (those five years or older with at least one previous owner).
Due to the time it takes to compile the information, the main data – changes in house and flat prices – covers a period roughly two quarters behind the publication date.
In this case, the full information covers the period of January 1, 2025 - March 31, 2025 - January 1, 2026 - March 31, 2026.
However, notaires also use current trends and preliminary data to make a host of other observations, including on sales numbers, mortgage rates, new builds, etc.
“In the coming months, the challenge will lie less in accelerating the market than in preserving the conditions under which it operates. Fundamentals remain solid overall, yet activity remains sensitive to shifts in financing conditions and the geopolitical environment,” notaires said.
Below, we cover five key points made by notaires.
Sales slowing, but no crash
Following concerns from estate agents over the state of France’s property market, the notaire report was eagerly anticipated.
Unlike some agencies however, notaires are less concerned about an impending market ‘crash’.
Between May 2025 - May 2026, the number of homes sold stood at 949,000, a +5.7% increase on May 2024 - May 2025.
While this remains below the pre-slump highs, this shows a sustained and robust return of the market.
Around 1,250,000 properties were sold between August 2020 - August 2021, but such figures are unsustainable in the long-term.
“Since the start of the year, the annual growth rate has shifted from +11.4% at the end of February to +7.9% at the end of March, and then to +5.3% at the end of April, reflecting a change in momentum,” said notaires.
“This trend looks more like a normalisation of activity than a reversal of the market direction,” notaires add, pointing out that this stability is no bad thing.
“Between the end of 2023 and the end of May 2026, the annual transaction volume grew by only 1.8%. The market thus appears to have returned to a relatively stable level of activity… reflecting a market driven more by owner-occupiers than by investment strategies or speculative anticipation.”
External factors are putting pressure on buyers
Where notaires agree with agencies however is that growth is slowing due to a number of factors.
This includes buyer caution spurred on by the current inflationary increases and prolonged tensions in the Middle East – which in turn also leads to stricter budgeting – and more paperwork required to finalise transactions.
A decline in household confidence, both in the wider economy and their own ability to successfully navigate a large purchase and subsequent mortgage, has led to further strain.
First-time buyers are in particular vulnerable to this and becoming even more hesitant to jump on the property ladder.
“Budgetary trade-offs are more frequent, leading buyers to adjust their projects rather than abandon them,” but these take longer to conclude.
“Against this backdrop, purchasing patterns continue to evolve. Buyers are prioritising properties that offer the best balance of quality, energy efficiency, functionality, and a controlled budget. Conversely, homes requiring major renovations or situated at the highest price points are facing greater challenges,” said notaires.
“The luxury market is showing signs of slowing down, particularly in the Île-de-France region and in certain coastal areas,” they added, although Paris itself was still showing growth in the first quarter of 2026.
Have property prices reached equilibrium?
Property prices are reaching an equilibrium, further reinforcing that the market is in a stabilisation phase.
While year-on-year price changes between January/March 2025 and January/March 2026 were significant in some locations, nationally changes were smaller.
Our article here covers house price changes across the period, and our article here flat prices.
When looking at the data for only the first quarter of 2026 however, property price growth is smaller across 2025.
Nationally, home prices increased by only +0.2%, driven primarily by growth in Paris and the Île-de-France region (+0.8% for flats, +1.1% for houses).
Outside of the capital, home prices increased by only +0.2% for houses, and for flats fell by -0.2%.
Predictions see these trends set to continue, with prices either stagnating or falling slightly year-on-year by July 2026.
Notaires are again, however, quick to comment how this is not necessarily negative for the market.
“These trends, driven primarily by the market for detached houses, remain modest in scale, reflecting a market where negotiation continues to take precedence over significant price fluctuations,” said the report.
“This price moderation is currently a key factor in the market's functioning. It helps maintain a balance between market values and households' purchasing power. Conversely, any rapid rise in prices or deterioration in buyers' financial standing could undermine activity in a sector that remains sensitive to its environment.”
Mortgage rates remain above 3%
Mortgage rates have again remained mostly stable, resting at around 3.22% in April 2026.
Interest hikes by the European Central Bank are yet to filter down into the mortgage sector, and while these rates are stable, they are significantly higher than the 2% or lower seen between 2016 and 2023.
Not as high as the peak in 2024 (of around 4%), the higher rates remain a stumbling block for would-be buyers, particularly for those looking to buy their first home.
The level of new mortgage production in France in April 2026 stood at €12 billion, down €12.6 billion from the previous month.
However, this figure is slightly above the yearly average between January 2025 and April 2026 (€11.8 billion) pointing towards some progress for the market.
Lending establishments are cautious of over-borrowing and prefer to see these rates dwindle than hand out risky mortgages (although France’s strict lending laws mean these are relatively rare regardless).
Recent calls to shake-up France’s mortgage sector – one of the last where a full fixed-term mortgage is commonplace have recently been made, but are far from being enacted.
New build fluctuations persist
Fluctuations in new build construction permits continue.
Following a sharp increase in March (+33%) and a sudden drop in April (-31%), the number of new properties authorised in May increased by +23%.
Much of the demand for new housing is being driven by multi-unit flats as opposed to detached homes.
The number of properties starting construction sat at 27,000 in May, a slight increase to April.
Reservations for new builds were up +4% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the end of 2025, pointing towards this as an attractive choice for buyers, particularly for multi-unit flats.
The number of new flats and homes put on the market fell at the start of 2026, but this reflects difficulties facing the construction sector following the Covid-19 pandemic (that led to a drop in properties being authorised or built) and not the current state of the market.
