‘Biggest airfare increase in history of Europe’ on the way, warns Ryanair CEO

Passengers face “the biggest increase in airfares… in the history of Europe,” next year unless jet fuel prices drop, Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has warned.

Mr O’Leary said that if jet fuel prices remain twice the amount they were before the US-Israeli conflict with Iran (which started at the end of February 2026), ticket prices could increase by 20%. 

This reiterates previous warnings by Mr O’Leary earlier this autumn over sustained price increases.

A secondary factor leading to the increase in prices would come from a series of airline failures and takeovers caused by the economic uncertainty, as well as a cut in available seating and routes driving up prices.

The airline chief warned of further cuts to schedules, particularly targeting less profitable routes and those to countries where high airline taxes are in place. 

For example, the low-cost carrier is axing 20 routes from Belgium – around one million seats – as per passenger flight taxes rise to €7 in January 2027 (it was €2 in January 2025).

France has already seen dozens of Ryanair routes cancelled due to a 2025 increase to flight taxes. 

“We will still be profitable, although less profitable than currently, if oil prices remain high,” said Mr O’Leary, with a knock-on effect of higher prices.

Ticket prices already increasing

France’s Civil Aviation Authority (DGAC) highlighted a sharp rise in ticket costs for passengers to and from France in the last year.

Passengers have faced an average increase +10.6% for round trips between September 2025 and September 2026.

However, international routes have seen larger increases of +12.1%, notably to North America +14.2% and Latin America +14%.

Domestic routes have been more stable, with increases of +3.7%.

Jet fuel now costs twice as much as pre-conflict levels

Mr O’Leary made his latest comments in an interview with media outlet Politico on the eve of a press conference in Brussels. 

“You're going to see dramatically less capacity this winter and into the summer of 2027,” he said. 

Ryanair has already cut around two million seats from its winter 2026/2027 schedule, partly due to high jet fuel prices. 

This came despite the airline having the majority of its fuel already covered (hedged) under existing purchase agreements.

European airlines typically hedge fuel months in advance, helping to shield them from some of the worst effects of jet fuel price increases.

However, fuel for next year is not covered by such agreements, and currently airlines face paying around double the amounts they did last year. 

“As we go out into next year, we're only 15% hedged at $85 a barrel. Basically, we're unhedged into the summer of 2027,” said Mr O’Leary.

For comparison, the International Air Transport Association estimates that current market rates are around $192 per barrel. 

These contracts end in March 2027, meaning the summer season is most at impact from increased prices. 

There is still the chance that jet fuel prices will drop before new hedging contracts are signed, but this is far from certain. 

A period of several months of open access to the Strait of Hormuz – a vital waterway transporting around a fifth of the world’s oil supply, and up to half of Europe’s jet fuel imports before the start of the conflict – would be required for prices to drop to pre-conflict levels.

Call for tax increase

Mr O’Leary also criticised the EU for unfair taxation policies, negatively affecting local airlines and routes while allowing larger, continental carriers to avoid fees. 

The EU’s Emissions Trading System taxes flights within the European Economic Area, as well as those flying to Switzerland and the UK, and are separate from domestic taxes countries can implement.

Ryanair, for example, will pay an estimated €1.5 billion in such taxes in 2026, according to Politico. 

However, flights to or from third countries are wholly exempt from the taxes (although covered by some UN carbon-offset schemes or domestic taxes where the carriers are based).

Mr O’Leary called it “indefensible” that European citizens were paying the environmental taxes, while carriers from Asia and North America “land and take off in Europe completely exempt from their fair share of environmental taxes.” 

Airlines, including European carriers such as Air France, KLM, and Lufthansa that have long-haul routes, should all pay the tax, Mr O’Leary said, on top of non-European  international carriers flying to or from Europe.

“And why not? Those are the most expensive flights in the world,” he said.

A proposal has been made to extend the tax to all flights within 5,000km of Frankfurt airport (departing European airports), which would lead to flights to such destinations as Morocco being included. However, longer-haul destinations such as the US and China would remain exempt.