Warm weather is expected to last in France until the end of the month, forecasters have said, after some areas in the country hit 30C or more last weekend.
From Gironde to the Hautes-Pyrénées, the 30C threshold was hit in several areas, such as Navarrenx in Pyrénées-Atlantiques, where the temperature reached 32.6C.
In its 15-day forecast, Météo France has suggested that the warm spell will last until the end of the month. However, it is not clear if cold weather will arrive after that, or if more mild temperatures will continue into November.
The forecaster said that its 15-day forecasts should be approached with caution (as it is a relatively long time out), but suggest a trend.
Similarly, maps from the tropical monitoring website Tropical Tidbits show that the unseasonally warm temperatures will very likely remain for the week October 19-26, as well as the week October 26 to November 2.
️La #douceur (voire #chaleur) pourrait persister jusqu'au début du mois de novembre sur la #France d'après les dernières modélisations avec des conditions évoluant assez peu en altitude. Une situation très inhabituelle en cette saison.— Guillaume Séchet (@Meteovilles) October 20, 2022
Cartes : TropicalTidBits pic.twitter.com/1UfOajOAun
From Monday October 24, Météo France has estimated that temperatures close to 25C will hit the southwest of the country, up to 26C in Corsica. It is expected to be higher than 17C nationwide, including 19C in Paris.
By this coming Friday, October 28, temperatures will still be higher than 17C, and will even remain at 15C at night. Similarly, on Monday, October 31, forecasts are currently showing 22C in Biarritz, 22C in Bordeaux, and 18C in Paris.
The unseasonal climate is explained by very mild air coming from the Canary Islands and the Iberian peninsula, which will mean that “we will continue to see high temperatures on average over the next few days and very likely into the next week”, Météo France said.
While not necessarily the seasonal norm, peaks of high temperatures are not unheard of in France for October, as autumn acts as a ‘transitional period’ after the summer. For example, from November 6 to 9, 2015, 24C was registered in Colmar in Alsace.
And yet, the length of the current mild period is more exceptional.
Meteorologist Cyril Duchesne, from La Chaîne Météo, told BFMTV: “While this heat is far from rare in October, the length of this period of warmth is unusual.”
He said that over the next few weeks, the minimum temperatures are set to be 2-4C higher than the usual seasonal average.
He said: “No cold period is likely to be recorded, which, in October, is very unusual. This month of October 2022 will be historically warm, with close to a 3C average higher than the norm.”