Months ahead likely to be warmer than average, warns French forecaster
July 2026 was the hottest on record in France
A warmer-than-average end of summer and beginning of autumn is likely this year, says state forecaster Météo France.
The forecaster publishes a monthly bulletin covering expected weather patterns and precipitation for the coming three months,
Its models see a 60% chance of warmer-than-usual temperatures in August, September, and October, a 20% chance of typical conditions, and a 20% chance of cooler-than-typical conditions.
This applies across all areas of mainland France.
The bulletin is a probability analysis based on current weather patterns and several forecasting models. It does not include temperature estimations for the months, only the general trend.
The increased temperatures – if they come – will be caused by the “persistence of anticyclonic blocking conditions over Northern Europe,” that have been the cause of several recent heatwaves to hit the continent, Météo France said.
The temperatures are “conducive to late-summer heatwaves… [although] short-lived cooler spells remain possible,” it added. This means France may see additional heatwaves throughout late August and September.
In the south, there is a 50% chance of a wetter-than-usual season.
There is thus the possibility that rainfall will replenish France’s waterways and bring an end to the historic drought that has led to restrictions across mainland France.
July breaks heat record
It comes after July 2026 was the hottest month in France since records began in 1900.
An average temperature of 24.9C across the month is slightly warmer than the 24.8C seen in August 2003, the year a heatwave saw up to 15,000 additional deaths across the period.
Several locations recorded temperatures of 40C or more for several consecutive days, with peaks of 42.1C in Saintes (Charente-Maritime) 41.2C in Narbonne (Aude) and 40.9C in Perpignan (Pyrénées-Orientales).
The record temperature comes sandwiched between several heatwaves in May, June, and August, with each month seeing new temperature records set across the country.
During the current heatwave impacting the east of France, temperatures are up to 10C warmer than usual for the season.
July 2026 is also one of the driest on record, with several areas of the Var, Alpes-Maritimes, and Corsica not recording any rain across the month.
As far north as Nantes (Loire-Atlantique), only 2.2mm fell across the month, well below typical.
