Brexit: what happens now?
The Brexit vote means at least two years of uncertainty for British expats in France, as we wait to find out what exit deal is thrashed out between the UK and the EU over leaving terms.
Nothing will change at present in terms of expats’ rights, however the dropping value of the pound will already be having an unwelcome effect on spending power of people such as UK state pensioners with income coming from the UK.
Shortly David Cameron will address the country. This will be followed by a statement to parliament on Monday or earlier if MPs demand a special sitting today or Saturday.
President Hollande will also be speaking, following a meeting which has just begun at the Elysée.
The referendum itself is not legally binding, but the UK government will probably consider it is morally obliged to follow it.
The UK will remain a member of the EU for the time being, however it is expected that at some point in coming days or months the country will invoke article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which will be the start of the official exit process from the EU, which some believe to be irrevocable.
A period of at least two years of negotiations between the UK and the other EU states will then begin before the UK actually exits. Technically this could conclude in a deal before this, but two years is itself a tight period for such a complex matter, which could include issues such as rights of British expats in the EU and EU expats in the UK as well as immigration and trade.
It is not yet clear exactly what will have to be included in the article 50 exit deal itself, and whether various matters could be dealt with in separate treaties alongside it or afterwards. It is also possible that unilateral treaties between the UK and other EU states may become necessary.
Article 50 can be triggered by a decision of the British cabinet, the London School of Economics’ professor of EU law David Chalmers told Connexion.
Some in the Vote Leave camp have said that theoretically it is possible for Britain to leave unilaterally, via other mechanisms. Experts think this highly unlikely in practice, and it would be extremely unpopular with the other EU states.
