French weekly weather forecast February 2 – 6: mild but unsettled

The first week of February will see cloudy skies and rain with temperatures 2 to 4C above seasonal norms.

This mild but unsettled pattern will keep flood risk elevated in vulnerable areas. Repeated rainfall on already saturated soils means rivers may rise quickly, particularly in western regions and parts of the south-east. 

In Brittany, several watercourses are under low-level (yellow) flood alert at the start of the week, with fresh Atlantic fronts likely to slow or reverse the recent recession. The situation is made more sensitive by high spring tides along the coast.

Monday, February 2

Overcast weather and rain is forecast for most of the country.

From the afternoon onwards, and especially overnight, periods of heavy rain are expected to set in from Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur to the Cévennes, with locally stormy showers. 

In Brittany, several rivers remain under low level (yellow) flood alert on Monday, including the Odet, Laïta, Oust, Blavet and the lower Vilaine.

Authorities warn that new rainfall on saturated soils could slow or reverse the falling water levels. The risk is compounded by the start of the spring tides.

Tuesday, February 3

North and central France will see spells of rain followed by showers, particularly across Brittany. 

The south-east remains unstable, with heavy showers and a risk of thunderstorms from Corsica to the Cévennes. 

Snow will fall in the Pyrenees above around 1,300metres. By contrast, the south-west should see brighter conditions and unusually mild afternoon temperatures, reaching up to 15C between Bordeaux and Toulouse.

Wednesday, February 4

Another Atlantic disturbance will reach the west of France, bringing further rain. 

Conditions may also deteriorate again in the south-east, with fresh rainfall from the Mediterranean coast inland towards the Cévennes.

Elsewhere, the day should be more settled, overcast or misty in the morning, then brighter later with sunny intervals.

Thursday, February 5

The general overcast pattern will persist. Rain continues to affect western France, with locally significant accumulations. 

Mediterranean regions, including Occitanie and Corsica, will remain unsettled, with showers. North of the Seine, brighter spells are more resilient, particularly close to the Belgian border.

Friday, February 6

The week will end with rain and brisk winds spreading towards the north and east. 

Atlantic regions will remain showery, but conditions should improve further south, with sunny spells returning near the Mediterranean, the Pyrenean foothills and the Basque coast.

No cold spells are expected, but the unsettled weather looks set to continue into next week.