Hot spell returns to France with highs of 35C forecast in the south
Temperatures are forecast to reach between six and eight degrees above seasonal norms in some areas
Peaks of around 35C are forecast in the south (archive picture of Montpellier, Hérault)
RossHelen/Shutterstock
Temperatures are climbing across France after a brief cooler spell, as a new wave of heat spreads across the country at the start of the week.
Hot air is moving north from Spain and North Africa, driven by a southerly airflow and high-pressure conditions extending across western Europe.
The result is a clear north-south divide at the start of the week. Temperatures above 30C are already widespread in southern regions, with peaks of around 35C in parts of Occitanie, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and Nouvelle-Aquitaine. Some sheltered inland areas could record even higher local temperatures.
Temperatures in parts of the south are forecast to reach between six and eight degrees above seasonal averages.
The north of France is also warming up, with highs on Sunday already reaching around 25C in the Paris region.
However, forecasters say the most significant rise will come from Wednesday, when heat is expected to spread across much of the country.
Heat prompts exam timetable rethink
The return of the hot weather comes as written baccalauréat exams are due to begin.
Education minister Edouard Geffray said on Sunday that he wants future exams to be scheduled in the morning rather than the afternoon, arguing that schools can no longer ignore increasingly hot conditions during late spring and early summer.
"We can no longer afford to have exams in May or June taking place between 14:00 and 18:00," he told France Inter, adding that classrooms are generally cooler during morning hours after being aired overnight.
The minister did not suggest moving exams to another time of year, but said the timetable should be adapted to account for rising temperatures linked to climate change.
According to forecasts from La Chaîne Météo, temperatures above 30C could affect most of mainland France, while highs of 35C or more are possible from the south-west through central and eastern regions. Areas close to the Channel coast are expected to remain somewhat cooler under the influence of the sea.
Meteorologists say there is now a high degree of confidence that France will experience a nationwide heat episode from midweek, although uncertainties remain over its precise intensity and duration.
“We could see widespread hot weather from Wednesday onwards,” said Sébastien Léas, a forecaster at Météo-France.
Not yet officially a heatwave
Forecasters are not yet classifying the current conditions as a heatwave, but they describe a clear and sustained rise in temperatures from Tuesday onward.
La Chaîne Météo notes that national thermal indicators could approach or exceed the thresholds used to define a nationwide heatwave later this week if current projections are confirmed.
Current scenarios suggest maximum temperatures of between 32C and 37C across the most exposed regions between Wednesday and next weekend.
Under these conditions, official canicule thresholds could be reached in several departments, particularly from the south-west into central France.
The hottest forecast scenarios continue to suggest local peaks of 39C to 40C in parts of the south-west, central regions and the Rhône valley, although meteorologists stress that these remain among the more extreme outcomes and will depend on how atmospheric conditions evolve.
Unlike the record-breaking episode in late May, this spell is being driven primarily by a southerly flow bringing hot air northwards from the Maghreb.
Longer June days are also contributing to the build-up of heat. With sunshine near its annual maximum and soils already dry in many regions, daytime heating is more efficient and temperatures can rise more rapidly than they did during the late-May event.
Storm alerts remain in place in several regions
The build-up of heat is also creating unstable conditions in some parts of France, prompting Météo-France to place several departments under yellow-level thunderstorm alerts on Monday.
The warnings mainly concern parts of Normandy and Brittany, as well as areas along the Pyrenees and in the south-east. Departments affected during the day include Calvados, Côtes-d’Armor, Eure, Finistère, Ille-et-Vilaine, Manche, Morbihan, Orne, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, Alpes-Maritimes, Hautes-Pyrénées and Pyrénées-Atlantiques.
According to Météo-France, isolated downpours and thunderstorms are possible from the Breton coast to the English Channel, while locally stormy showers may also develop over the Pyrenees and southern Alps during the afternoon.
The national severe-weather observatory Keraunos said a small low-pressure system forming between southern Portugal and Andalusia is introducing additional instability across Spain and parts of southern France. While widespread severe weather is not expected, some storms could bring brief heavy rain, strong gusts and isolated hail.
Several northern departments, including Aisne, Oise, Somme and Seine-Maritime, could remain under alert into the early hours of Tuesday as the unstable conditions shift eastwards.
Heat likely to persist into the weekend
Current forecasts indicate that the heat will continue from at least Wednesday through next weekend, coinciding with both the Fête de la Musique and the summer solstice.
Most weather models agree on a minimum duration of four to five days of unusually hot weather across much of the country.
Beyond next weekend, confidence decreases. Some forecast models maintain the high-pressure system and hot conditions into the following week, while others suggest Atlantic disturbances could return, bringing thunderstorms and somewhat cooler air.
As a result, meteorologists say the exact duration of the episode remains the main uncertainty, although a prolonged period of above-average temperatures now appears increasingly likely.
