Summer flight ticket price increases ‘inevitable’ due to jet fuel issues
Airlines are unlikely to absorb costs from rising kerosene prices, but widespread fuel shortages not expected
A rise in jet fuel costs is likely to lead to price increases
2025 J-Alone/Shutterstock
An increase to air fares is ‘inevitable’ this summer due to impending jet fuel shortages, an expert in the travel industry believes.
The effects of the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz – through which some 40% of Europe’s kerosene supplies usually travel – and uncertainty around future deliveries is responsible, said head of the International Air Transport Association Willie Walsh to the BBC.
Even if the strait fully reopened in the coming days the effects of the disruption may affect ticket prices well into 2027, he said.
However, travellers should not be concerned over the possibility of widespread flight cancellations due to jet fuel shortages this summer.
UK and EU operators continue to insist that any disruptions due to jet fuel shortages will be minimal.
‘No way airlines can absorb costs’
Despite assurances from airlines, travellers are concerned over the risk of cancellations due to jet fuel shortages and the threat of being stranded far from home.
Travel operator Tui has seen ticket sales drop by around 10% this summer, and a shift away from usually-popular destinations in the eastern Mediterranean.
Some airlines have launched summer sales to buoy demand, but this is an exception with wider price increases expected across the sector.
“There is just no way airlines can absorb the additional costs they are experiencing,” said Mr Walsh to the BBC.
“There may be some instances where airlines will [offer a] discount to stimulate some traffic flow… but over time it is inevitable that the high price of oil will be reflected in higher ticket prices,” he added.
This could also impact flights outside of the busy summer period, where demand is lower.
US jet fuel on the way?
Mr Walsh agreed with other industry leaders that jet fuel shortages are not a major concern for airlines this summer, but warned that some disruption is still possible.
“I think the concern will be that if sufficient alternative supply isn't sourced, there may be some shortages when we get into the peak summer period,” he said, adding that “it is normal to see a 25% increase in flights and fuel requirements in the months of July and August versus say March.”
Airlines across Europe state that they are not experiencing widespread shortages, although several have begun to cut flights or bring in surcharges for certain routes.
A UK government spokesperson said last week that airlines were “clear that they are not currently seeing a shortage of jet fuel.” Airlines including Ryanair had previously raised warnings over potential supply issues from June onwards.
The EU also stated that US grade jet fuel – not currently used by airlines in Europe – was not banned by European regulations and could be used by airlines on the continent, provided its introduction was carefully managed and it did not lead to aircraft operating outside of safety parameters.
The main difference between US jet fuel (‘type A’) and the other main fuel type (‘A-1’) is the latter has a lower freezing point, making it more resilient and adapted for long-haul flights.
However, fuel additives can be used to help aircraft travel through colder zones which is currently the case when Type ‘A’ fuel is used for journeys to Alaska etc.
