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Temperatures spike before rain returns: French weather forecast September 28 - October 2
Highs of more than 30C forecast between storms
An unseasonably warm start to the week will see temperatures exceed usual averages by 10C or more, before quickly cooling down – but remaining above seasonal averages.
The latter half of the week will see the continuation of much-needed rainfall following the first rainfall of the month over the weekend and on Monday.
Monday September 28
The week begins warm for most but wet for some, with early morning rain along the north and west coasts.
This rain, running from Lille to Bordeaux, has the risk of developing into thunderstorms, particularly around Paris and the coastal south-west.
State forecaster Météo France has issued tier-two yellow warnings for stormy conditions in several departments, asking residents to remain vigilant.
You can check live alerts on the official website here.
Skies will remain cloudy across France even in areas set to remain dry, although get progressively sunnier when moving eastwards.
Temperatures remain well above average in many areas.
All of the north will see highs of 20C or more save for pockets of Brittany and coastal Normandy, but this rises to 24C in the capital and 25C around Reims.
Highs of 28C in the east around Metz – where Pope Leo XIV will make the final official appearance of his visit – are also forecast.
Bordeaux, Toulouse, and the German border area could even see highs of 30C.
Tuesday September 29
A spike in temperatures despite the already warm weather is expected on Tuesday, coinciding with calm conditions.
Skies will be largely cloudy but only the western Mediterranean is at any risk of storms and prolonged rainfall.
Temperatures of 27C - 30C will cover much of the north, and in the south temperatures of 30C - 33C.
These are around 8C - 10C higher than usual for the end of the month, and in some rural areas of the north temperatures will be 12C higher than usual.
Temperatures will also stay warm well into the night, many areas seeing overnight temperatures of well over 15C, if not closer to 20C – uncomfortable reminders of the frequent heatwaves and ‘tropical nights’ experienced this summer.
Wednesday September 30
A distinct shift is expected as a ‘cold’ front begins to sweep across France from the Atlantic on Wednesday.
Temperatures will drop by around 3C - 5C from Tuesday’s highs in the south-west and north, although note this is still above average for the season.
In the east, temperatures will remain largely similar to Tuesday's highs, but may drop by 1C or so.
The new weather system will also bring rain, beginning in the north and west early morning and then moving to cover much of the country.
This rainfall, the second bout in less than a week, is expected to bring some relief to France’s drought woes, moistening the soil so that future rainfall can permeate and begin to refill aquifers.
Storms in the south-west and western Mediterranean are possible, and a bout of storms in the south could develop into a powerful ‘Cévenol’ storm, bringing intense rain to the Massif Central and Mediterranean coast.
Forecasts are not yet sure of the intensity of the rain but heightened alerts are possible – residents in the area should keep up to date with weather bulletins throughout the week.
Thursday October 1
Rain will continue to drift eastwards, hitting the German and Swiss borders. Conditions in the west will be sunny, although pockets of cloud will remain.
Temperatures will continue to drop, with highs of 20C - 21C across most of the country. In the south-east, highs of 25C along the French Riviera remain possible.
Friday October 2
Rain will be limited to the south, falling from the Pays-Basque to the Italian border, falling steadily throughout the day.
Cloudy skies across a central belt are forecast, with the sunniest conditions in the north.
Temperatures remain similar to Thursday, but will drop in the south by 1C or 2C, bringing down national averages.
Early forecasts for the weekend see a cloudy and calm Saturday for most, but with powerful storms in the Pyrénées.
Sunday will see rain across much of the south.
