‘Ultra’ Brexiteer MPs could force PM’s hand
Some commentators – such as Lord Ricketts, see interview here – believe Boris Johnson now has almost a free hand on Brexit due to his large majority, but a UK politics professor has a different view.
If there are now many hardline Brexiteers in Parliament, it could be difficult for Mr Johnson to go for a softer Brexit or extend the transition, Professor Colin Talbot, of Manchester and Cambridge universities, said.
“I don’t have a good analysis of how many MPs are extreme Brexiteers, as opposed to more pragmatic,” he said. “But it wasn’t just that some moderate Tories were thrown out before the election. Many stood down, including a lot of former Remainers who lost the will to continue.
“It’s not entirely clear who they have been replaced with but if the ‘ultra’ group is larger than it was, which I suspect it is, it will be difficult for Johnson to extend beyond this year, even if he may well want to do so.
“It depends how much they try to force a no [trade] deal Brexit, by refusing an extension and waiting for the year to end.”
If that happens, Prof Talbot said the UK will not even trade on WTO terms, as there will be no way to enforce them, because President Trump is refusing to appoint American judges to the WTO appeal court.
“That will be for the foresee-able future, unless he’s defeated in 2020.
“I suspect the EU would just impose terms, which may include tariffs on agricultural goods and fishing, which would be devastating to the UK economy. We sell most of our fish to the EU as much of it are kinds we don’t eat.”
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Prof Talbot said he fears many older Britons in the EU “will get a terrible shock to not be treated in the same way any more”.
He also fears a “legislative bottleneck” as many laws will have to be passed.
“Everyone I have spoken to thinks it can’t be done because until they know what the negotiations have decided, they can’t put legislation through – and until laws are in place, they can’t build systems to implement it.
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“There will be huge administrative problems. And it’s not just about trade.
“There are 101 things where we have collaborative arrangements though the EU, which all have to be negotiated simultaneously. And the capacity to do it is not there.”
