Who will lead the Socialists?

SIX politicians are busy on the campaign trail this month to become the Socialist candidate tasked with toppling Nicolas Sarkozy in next summer’s presidential elections.

The party hopefuls include the current and former party leaders, the 2007 presidential candidate, two relative newcomers and a far-left outsider.

Party members and other left-wing sympathisers will vote for their flag-bearer in primary elections on October 9. After that, a second stage on October 16 will take place if no clear winner emerges in the first stage. Non-French citizens cannot vote.

The Socialists are desperate to regain the Elysée palace, more than 15 years after François Mitterrand left office, but despite strenuous attempts to show unity the party is still divided.

Much of this has come about after the scandal involving former IMF chairman Dominique Strauss-Kahn, which has had a serious effect on the campaign. Until then Strauss-Kahn was hotly tipped to topple Sarkozy, but the scandal has put paid to that and now the different factions are battling for top spot.

At the moment, opinion polls point to this October’s primary contest being a two-horse race between former party leader François Hollande, MP for the Corrèze, and Lille mayor Martine Aubry, who took over in 2008 and has taken a break from the leadership role while the primaries are held.

Another familiar face is Poitou-Charentes regional president Ségolène Royal, who was defeated by Sarkozy in the 2007 presidential campaign but is desperate to make a comeback.

One popular rumour doing the rounds – and picked up by French weekly news magazine Marianne – is that Royal could reconcile with her former partner, Hollande, with whom she had four children, and run a joint campaign to attempt to isolate Aubry.

Hollande is currently a long way in the lead in opinion polls: preferred by 42% of respondents in an Ipsos/Logica poll for Radio France, France Télévisions and Le Monde. Aubry scored 31% and Royal 18%.

Previous polls also gave him the lead but with varying figures: CSA/20 Minutes put him on 37% with Aubry again on 31%; while IFOP/ France Soir had him at 42% and Aubry at 34%.