THE CASE is very strong. The
Conservative Party believes all
UK citizens in the EU and indeed
more widely should have
the vote [in the broader sense,
including General Elections]
and not be cut off, so I don’t
see that there’s an objection in
principal. And this referendum
is the one vote that Britons in
the EU probably mind about
the most. So it seems extremely
anomalous to say you are in
favour of giving them the vote
and then not give it to them in
time to participate in this.
I think it’s hard to say the
outcome of the referendum, because
opinion polls this far away
are not very meaningful. In
1974, at this distance from the
vote in June 1975 [when Britons
voted to stay in the EEC] there
was a very large majority for
leaving, which was reversed in
the following months to a two
to one majority for staying in.
People probably don’t start to
really make up their minds until
very shortly before the vote,
which is why in polls at the
moment there’s a mass of ‘don’t
knows’. It’s not a dead certainty
either way; I think it’ll be a tight
thing.
I’ve spent my professional life
negotiating about Britain’s role
in Europe, starting with the accession
negotiations in 1971 -2
and I continue to have no doubt
whatsoever that the right place
for Britain, where it’s interests
lie, is as a member of the EU.
It would be very optimistic
to think that coming out
would not affect expats. A lot
of the rights people have – in
Spain or France or Italy - are
based on EU law relating to
a country that is a member
state. They cannot simply
assume all those rights would
be maintained. They may be,
but may not be and it would
be too late to worry about that
if we decide to leave.
It’s very important the government
clairifies the rights
for Britons in the EU and EU
citizens in the UK that could
be at stake. In 1975 everyone
was sent a document called If
we say no.
What is also important – and
new – is the relationship with
Scotland and Northern Ireland.
I wrote a piece called Two
unions or no union. If Scotland
votes to stay in and the rest
votes to leave I think it’s certain
the Scots will ask for an independence
referendum and very
likely win it.
The problem in Northern
Ireland is the effect of the
island being divided between
a part that is in the EU and
part that is not.
In recent years border controls
have disappeared but if the
British vote ‘no’ because they
want to stop free movement
of people, I don’t see how that
could be maintained.
That would destabilise the
Good Friday agreement, as
would stopping the European
Arrest Warrant, which provides
a basis by which law and order
against terrorism and international
crime on the island is
depoliticised. For years an Irish
court would never return someone
to the north even if they had
committed heinous crimes but
now that is dealt with under the
EAW. If that went, the risk is it
would become politicised again.
