Will warm and wet weather continue in France?

France has seen a wet and mild start to 2026, with rainfall far exceeding usual averages and temperatures continually above seasonal norms, reaching close to 30C even before March. 

This week marks the start of (meteorological) spring and the switch to a new season, with state forecaster Météo France publishing its monthly forecast for the season, assessing predicted temperature and rainfall, alongside general conditions. 

Météo France publishes its ‘Tendances’ monthly, looking ahead to the upcoming three months.

Warm weather across France but rain in the north 

In short, patterns seen throughout winter are expected to continue. 

“The most likely scenario is associated with a more pronounced westerly atmospheric circulation over the North Sea,” said Météo France.

This in turn is expected to lead to a warmer-than-usual spring, with a 50% chance of temperatures being above average. 

There is a 30% chance they remain the same as usual, and only a 20% chance of a cooler-than-average spring. 

However, that does not mean the risk of the occasional cold snap or cool day is over, and Météo France warns that periods of cooler weather are expected at some point over the three months, but did not specify when or where exactly this is forecast. 

In turn however, there is a 50% chance of a rainier-than-average spring, particularly across the northern half of the country. 

Elsewhere, rainfall should be average, limiting the risk of further flooding in the west and south. 

Note that the predictions are not guaranteed, and are based on early meteorological patterns compared to previous years.

You can see the full report here.