Burnham’s UK debate on rejoining EU marks ‘significant break’, says Sorbonne Nouvelle professor

This interview is part of a series by The Connexion on the UK Prime Minister’s recent comments about rejoining the EU, how likely a return is and what form it might take.  

The professor of contemporary British studies at Sorbonne Nouvelle university says Andy Burnham opening the debate on rejoining the EU represents “a significant break”.

Prof Pauline Schnapper, whose university is one of those created after the historic University of Paris was split up, said: “It is the first time in ten years that a prime minister opens the door, or at least leaves it ajar, on the possibility of either rejoining, or joining the single market or the customs union.”

However, although polls suggest a small majority now favours rejoining, she cautioned that similar polling before the 2016 referendum proved unreliable.

“If there was going to be a second referendum, the Remain camp would have to really run a much better campaign than they did in 2016. It would probably be easier because the negative consequences are more obvious and they could play on that.”

Prof Schnapper said that while Mr Burnham has made it clear that he does not want the status quo, the other options all involve difficult issues.

She said the customs union would probably have limited impact on the British economy because most of the trade agreements that the UK signed in the last few years with third countries were not very different from what the EU has negotiated in parallel.

The single market creates other issues, from free movement to financial contributions, the euro and the UK’s former budget rebate, all of which would have to be renegotiated, whether before or after a referendum. 

“And it is far from certain that the EU would grant the same sort of status that Britain had before,” she said.

It is likely that Mr Burnham will spell out in his next manifesto what he will do. 

“If you think of what happened in Iceland, it could be a referendum about whether to start negotiations about rejoining. 

“Or he could pledge to negotiate and if we reach a satisfactory agreement we will organise a referendum on that. That’s what Wilson did successfully in 1975 [when 67% voted to stay in the European Community] and what Cameron tried to do, but failed.”

Asked if she believes Britons now feel European, she said: “That is probably true among the younger generation, and there were masses of protesters in the streets of London in 2018 and 2019.

“I'm not sure we have evidence for whether that really means that there is now a deep-seated feeling of European identity among a majority of the British population.

“I am sure that there is a section of the British population which has realised that they felt European and that they were highly frustrated by being taken out of the EU. Of that there is no doubt.”

In France, Britain’s relationship with the EU is not currently a “big issue” for the population.

“But Macron's immediate reaction was very positive and I don't see any mainstream French government being against the UK rejoining.

“And among the French population, it is not something that people will wake up thinking about.”

Under a Le Pen presidency, she said “everything would be up in the air”.

“We would probably have a major crisis with the EU. Not about the UK, but about budget, about help for Ukraine etc. So, it is difficult to predict anything if that happens.”

The geopolitical situation is a strong reason why the UK might move closer to its neighbours, she said. 

“I think a lot of Britons have realised that when you have the Russian threat on the one hand and an unreliable America on the other, the good old partnership with your neighbours is important. 

“Whether that would still be the case if a normal US president is elected in two years is impossible to say.”

She added: “The risk, I would say, from the British perspective, is not that France would say ‘no’ to them rejoining, but that it might be difficult on specific aspects such as the British financial contribution.

“We might say, we are happy to have them, but they will have to follow the rules in the same way as other third party countries that try to join.”

She added: “If there is a threat that Reform could form the next government, I don't think the European Commission will be happy to open negotiations, which is why nothing will happen until the next general election.

“That is also why Burnham mentioned a need for consensus. He will try to make sure that at least the Conservatives are open to it, because it will be a strong argument with the Europeans.

“There is an argument that the really hard Brexiters have already left the Conservative party and have joined Reform.”

She said: “I, personally, would be thrilled. The Brexit referendum day was one of my worst days.

“I have many British friends who have homes in France and for whom it has been a nightmare, if only for the queues. But it goes much further than that. It just makes no sense, both in economic terms and political and strategic terms.

“I think what Burnham wants to do now is open the debate, to see how it goes, then put something in his manifesto. I don’t see how it can go quicker than that.”