French gas prices: should you switch to a fixed deal before May rise?
Bills may increase by €200 per year due to increase in global gas prices
Fixed-price contracts can cap costs for households – but come with risks
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Gas prices are set to increase monthly from May 2026 as a result of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, leading to the question whether changing contracts beforehand is a sensible option.
Attacks on both Qatari and Iranian natural gas producing facilities are expected to see prices surge, and may see them remain inflated for several months as any damaged infrastructure must be repaired before gas production can reach pre-conflict levels.
The Strait of Hormuz, used to transport around 20% of the world's liquified natural gas, remains largely closed to merchant shipping, causing further global instability.
Bills for fluctuating or ‘index price’ gas contracts may increase by up to €18 per month in May estimates energy comparison website Selectra, leading to a €200 increase across a 12-month period.
If this is the case, locking in a cheaper price through a fixed contract may be beneficial, but there is a risk customers may be trapped at these higher prices if they subsequently drop.
Small April price drop precedes expected increase
France’s benchmark gas price is set to drop by around 0.9% on April 1, based on a pattern of consistently lower prices since the start of the year.
It comes alongside a 3.4% increase in taxes on gas that are also coming into effect on April 1, significantly reducing the overall impact of the drop on households.
This benchmark, set monthly by the Commission de régulation de l'énergie (CRE), can be used by bill payers to estimate if their contracts are in line with standard pricing.
The benchmark price was introduced by the CRE when regulated gas tariff options were discontinued in 2024.
Around 70% of domestic gas supply customers are on contracts loosely tied to the benchmark or index price, which fluctuate in line with the monthly updates (suppliers do not have to stick to the benchmark but usually remain close to it to avoid losing customers to cheaper offers elsewhere).
However, the remainder of household gas contracts are ‘fixed price’, meaning they lock in a certain price for a certain period, usually between 12 and 36 months.
Once this period is up, they revert back to a fluctuating contract based on the index price at which point customers can renew their contract with revised fixed-price rates if they wish.
Is a fixed price contract worth it?
Households currently on benchmark contracts can usually switch to a fixed price at any time, if they deem it advantageous.
New subscriptions taken out before incoming higher prices on May 1 could potentially avoid subsequent increases by locking in a lower set price.
“The lull in April is not an invitation to be patient; it may be the last opportunity to act before the May price hike,” said Deputy Managing Director of Selectra Maxime de La Raudière.
“Gas suppliers are already adapting their [contracts] to anticipate the May price surge. As the days go by, more and more protective contracts are disappearing from the market,” he added.
Selectra state fixing a price now is ‘the most sensible course of action’.
Read contracts carefully
Some suppliers in France have an advantage in that they produce some of their own gas, reducing import costs potentially providing cheaper rates for fixed-price contracts.
This includes TotalEnergies, Engie, and Plénitude, all of which offer fixed-price contracts on the market.
However, be aware that when signing up to a fixed-price contract prices can still fluctuate across the period.
Most contracts only fix the price of the gas itself, with elements such as tax and supply costs remaining variable.
This means that contracts increase (or, less usual, decrease) in line with changes to tax and supply rates.
Variables include transmission (acheminement) which can see prices change when rates for delivering gas to homes are re-evaluated by the government each year.
If looking to switch, search for deals that are ‘prix fixe tout compris’ (all inclusive fixed-price deals), which only allow for taxes as a variable cost throughout the contract’s duration.
Contracts styled simply as ‘prix fixe’ are far more common but also more varied, so you will need to closely read the fine print to see what costs are excluded.
