France braces for heatwave next week: 40°C forecast near Pyrénées

A new heatwave is expected to hit France at the end of next week, bringing temperatures of up to 40C to the south-west. 

Caused by a rush of hot anticyclone wind pushing into France from the Iberian peninsula, temperatures will start climbing midweek on Tuesday-Wednesday (August 5-6) before rising considerably on Thursday. 

Temperatures will remain high and possibly continue into the following week (Monday August 11).

The heatwave will be most noticeable in the south-west and centre of the country, although unusually high temperatures may reach into Brittany and as far east as the Alps.

Alongside the predicted high of 40C in the Pyrénées, highs of above 35C are likely in the south-west around Bordeaux and Toulouse as well as the Languedoc area. Temperatures may reach above 30C in Brittany.

The northern third of the country will remain largely free from the heatwave, as the English Channel brings cooler air and sees temperatures remain at seasonal averages. 

It will be the first heatwave in over a month, after a record-equalling period of hot weather between June 19 and July 3 was followed by a series of grey and rainy weeks.

This prolonged heatwave lasted as long as the major 2003 canicule, and led to 480 excess deaths, reports Santé Publique France. 

When will heatwave warnings be raised? 

National weather alerts for heatwaves (canicule) are only given once temperatures rise significantly above average for three days and nights consecutively. 

This means warnings are not likely to be in place until the end of the week. 

These alerts are given on a departmental basis, meaning the temperature threshold to be considered ‘above average’ changes between areas. 

Next week, it is likely that these warnings will only be given in the south and centre of France, as temperatures elsewhere are unlikely to rise enough or for a sustained period.

A national heatwave alert – vague de chaleur – is unlikely, as this requires national average temperatures to reach above 25C for several days. 

State forecaster Météo France is predicting that national averages may reach close to this (24.8C) at the end of next week, but cooler conditions in the north will keep the barometer below this main threshold. 

Note that temperatures are given in the shade and in direct sunlight – the heatwave is likely to coincide with clear skies – it can feel considerably warmer.