France is again on the brink of political chaos as it looks increasingly likely that Prime Minister François Bayrou will fail a vote of confidence on September 8.
A defeat could plunge President Emmanuel Macron’s government into fresh uncertainty and force difficult choices about the country’s political future.
What is the September 8 vote and why is it taking place?
The self-imposed vote is a gamble from Mr Bayrou to gain support for the principles of his upcoming 2026 budget before it is officially presented to MPs and Senators in the autumn.
While not a vote of confidence on the budget itself (it is technically a vote on his politique générale or political outline for the coming months) the move is being used as a barometer for the government’s level of support and control.
If Mr Bayrou survives, he will claim the government and its plans for the budget are legitimate, and will expect support to pass the bill and its €44 billion of savings.
A fall is looking increasingly likely, however.
If an absolute majority of MPs (289 of the 577 in the Assemblée nationale) vote to oust the government, it is immediately toppled, forcing Mr Bayrou and his cabinet to resign.
Parties including the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies, the far-left La France Insoumise, Socialists, Greens, and independent left-wing groups have signalled their intention to vote against the prime minister.
This combination would see well over 300 MPs voting against the prime minister.
The fact the vote is being proposed by the prime minister himself and not either of the opposing factions makes it much easier for them to vote together against him.
This is because the extreme wings will not have to vote for a motion of no confidence proposed by their ideological opponents, as was the case in December 2024 against former prime minister Michel Barnier.
Mr Bayrou said he will spend the next week and a half discussing his politique générale with opposition parties – starting with a meeting alongside far-right MP and RN talisman Marine Le Pen today – in an attempt to garner support.
The outlook for Mr Bayrou is considered bleak however, with the general consensus among French politicos being that he is almost certain to leave the post on September 8.
What happens next, and is the budget at risk?
Other than the political instability France will once again face – including potentially a second consecutive year without a full budget in place – it leaves President Emmanuel Macron with the unenviable task of choosing another prime minister and cabinet.
Mr Macron has stated the prime minister has his “full support” and several cabinet members have praised the decision to call a vote of confidence, but there are undoubtedly behind-the-scenes preparations for the vote backfiring.
If the government does fall it must immediately resign, leaving France without a functioning government until a new one is declared by the president.
This could jeopardise work on the 2026 budget, and unless a new government is quickly appointed, could mean the bill is not ready to be reviewed by MPs and Senators in time to pass before the end of the year.
Going two years without a full budget in place is unprecedented.
The 2025 budget, passed exceptionally late in spring this year, is a watered-down version of the bill as several elements must be put in place before December 31 of the preceding year.
A poisoned chalice?
Mr Macron will be forced to appoint the seventh prime minister of his tenure, equalling the record under the Fifth Republic set by former president François Mitterrand although he held the post for 14 years compared to Mr Macron’s current eight.
The position of prime minister is clearly an unenviable one under the current political climate:
Mr Macron has appointed several prime ministers that are (relatively) long-standing members of his own party, such as Elisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal, who, despite their experience and relative popularity, are unlikely to want the role again under the current situation.
Other prominent figures may not want the role.
Some, such as current Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, are reportedly planning their own bid for the presidency in 2027, and so could distance themselves from the presidency of Mr Macron.
Former prime minister Edouard Philippe – generally seen as the most popular ‘centrist’ politician according to opinion polls – now runs his own centrist party and has officially announced his bid for the 2027 presidential campaign, making him an unlikely choice.
Current ministers Catherine Vautrin and Sébastien Lecornu are names highlighted by the press, with enough name recognition and experience in recent cabinets, but it is unclear how much they desire the post.
What about a candidate from another party?
Mr Bayrou’s predecessor Michel Barnier is a member of the right-wing Les Républicains, and his appointment resulted in the current alliance between the right and Macronist MPs.
Several right-wing politicians were appointed to cabinet positions under Mr Barnier, a strategy continued under the current government.
However, a second vote of no confidence in a Macron-appointed prime minister in less than 12 months could result in the party looking towards future elections to ensure their long-term political survival in the face of the threat from the far-right.
Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau is now head of Les Républicains and is unlikely to take up the role as head of government as he focuses on the party’s hopes in 2027.
As the single-largest party in the Assemblée, the far-right RN knows it acts as partial kingmakers in the current set-up, and may prefer to use its influence from the backbenches and grow more support among voters before the next round of presidential and legislative elections.
Allying with Mr Macron could be seen by many voters – who back the party as much as a protest vote against the president as for its programme – as a betrayal meaning the party may lose ground in the polls.
Looking left, Mr Macron is equally unlikely to find allies.
The far-left refuse to work with the president in any way and the chances of an alliance with the more moderate Socialists or Greens are considered poor after the president spurned them with his appointments of Mr Barnier and Mr Bayrou as opposed to a centre-left candidate.
In theory Mr Macron could simply re-appoint the current cabinet and prime minister but this is likely to lead to the government being subject to a new vote of no confidence from MPs.
New elections on the horizon?
A central issue surrounding the prime ministerial difficulties is the deadlock inside the Assemblée nationale.
Following the 2022 legislative elections (that return MPs to the chamber), the centrist alliance lost its absolute majority, becoming a minority government.
This base was further eroded in the 2024 legislative elections and an alliance of centrist and right-wing MPs is now not enough to form an absolute majority.
Another set of legislative elections is now possible however itself would be a risk.
There is no guarantee that the fractious nature of the current Assemblée would not be repeated.
If a single group were to come out on top (opinion polls suggest this would be the far-right) this could further weaken the president potentially forcing him to appoint a prime minister from one of the rival parties.
It is unlikely that the left would both be able to unite under a single banner once again, leading to a repeat of the 2024 elections which saw the combined group becoming the largest overall coalition in the chamber. However, it is possible.
In 2024, Mr Macron ruled out another set of legislative elections before the end of his tenure in 2027. It is unclear whether he will stick to this commitment following an ousted government on September 8.
Political pressure may result in new elections and be a way out for Mr Macron from the current deadlock, even if the outcome is unfavourable to his party.
Presidential resignation?
If Mr Macron resigned as president this would see a new president announced before the end of the year, together with another round of legislative elections.
Recent surveys have seen more than two-thirds of the population polled state they want the president to resign if the government collapses next month.
This would be a huge risk for the centrist Macronist project – already at risk of collapsing once the president leaves office in 2027 – as an early exit would all but ensure support is lost to other parties.
Recent opinion polls point to the far-right being probable winners of a presidential election although following a recent court ruling Ms Le Pen would be unable to run.
Current polls also show support for Bruno Retailleau and Edouard Philippe, at levels higher than any 'Macronist' candidate.
On the far-left, La France Insoumise and ‘mainstream’ far-left parties generally perform above expectations during presidential elections, but it is unlikely that influential-yet-controversial talisman Jean-Luc Mélenchon - a driving force behind this campaigning success - would be the candidate.
A different candidate could either be a boon or a detriment to the party’s chances.
A wider coalition between the leftist parties is less likely in the presidential elections than the legislative, as parties are considered more likely to put their own candidates forward for the position of president.
Mr Macron faced a similar issue after the 2024 elections, with commentators calling his position untenable.
Then, he announced that he would not resign under any circumstances and would see out the remainder of his term. This is considered his probable approach again.
