French PM’s vote of confidence: kamikaze gamble or smart poker move?

French Prime Minister François Bayrou’s call for his government to face a vote of confidence in parliament on September 8 has surprised political allies, rivals, the press - and the markets - as he appears to lack the support to win and has never been less popular.

The announcement on Monday that he would stake his government on approval of his budgetary plan in order to save France from the “immediate danger” of mounting debt could instead result in the collapse of his government, and more political uncertainty.

If the vote passes it would ease the way for parliamentary negotiations on his 2026 budget.

However, if his government loses the vote, the lack of parliamentary support will oblige him to use Article 49.3 to force through the budget, exposing the government to a censure motion that could potentially topple it. This happened to his predecessor Michel Barnier’s government in 2024. 

“Our country is in danger because we are on the brink of over-indebtedness,” Mr Bayrou said on Monday. “This year, debt will be the largest item in the budget.”

“France cannot ignore this danger, cannot do nothing,” he said, citing the example of the UK under Prime Minister Liz Truss, who was forced to resign after 42 days due to pressure from the financial markets.

The confidence vote comes amid continuing backlash against his plan to find €44billion in savings for the 2026 budget.

To win the vote Mr Bayrou needs the support of 289 MPs out of 577.

Vote of confidence has some support…

The government can rely on 91 centrists and Macron-aligned MPs.

Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who is also leader of the right-wing Les Républicains party, has pledged the support of his party - 49 MPs.

Announcing his support, Mr Retailleau said he “entered government to prevent chaos and the rise of the extreme left,” and that he believes it would be “irresponsible to plunge the country into a major financial crisis, the consequences of which would first affect the most vulnerable.”

In order to win, Mr Bayrou needs to find support from another 149 MPs.

…but far more opposition

Several parties say they will vote against the government - some want to topple it outright:

La France insoumise (71 MPs), 

Groupe écologiste (38 MPs) 

Democratic and Republican Left (17 MPs)

Socialists (66 MPs) 

Rassemblement National (123 MPs) 

Communists (17 MPs) 

Additional opposition could come from the LIOT group (23 MPs) and non-attached deputies (11), however they could be more amenable to Mr Bayrou’s proposals.

This would mean opposition of 366 MPs in total.

Press reaction: kamikaze or poker move?

French newspapers have variously framed the vote as either a daring political manoeuvre or a self-inflicted crisis. 

Les Echos described Bayrou’s move as a “surprise to create a shock effect,” while Le Figaro called it a “poker move” designed to regain initiative.

Libération labelled it a “kamikaze operation,” arguing the prime minister had effectively “self-destructed.” L’Humanité echoed the sentiment, warning that Mr Bayrou had “organised his own fall” and set the “countdown in motion.” 

Commentators also highlighted Mr Bayrou’s political panache. 

L’Opinion suggested the fall of the government was predictable, yet by choosing the timing himself, Mr Bayrou was “taking control of his destiny.” 

Les Echos added that the “old hand” continues to defy expectations.

Market reaction and public support

Mr Bayrou’s popularity has fallen sharply in recent months.

Only 12% of French citizens trusted him in August 2025, according to an Elabe survey, down from 29% in December 2024. 

Distrust now reaches 80%. 

Following the announcement markets responded immediately, with France’s CAC 40 dropping 1.6%, and down by 1.91% on Tuesday morning