Analyst says no-votes could win for Le Pen
Scientist predicted both Brexit and Trump victories and spells out how Macron could lose
A political analyst who used a mathematical calculation to predict both the Brexit vote and the arrival of President Trump has said it also shows Marine Le Pen could win in France on May 7.
Physicist Serge Galam, a researcher and member of the Cevipof political science centre at Sciences Po, said the hard-to-quantify “unavowed abstention” could put paid to Emmanuel Macron’s chances.
Speaking on BFMTV this week, he gave an example using polling figures, saying: “If Marine Le Pen gets 42% of the vote, which is not impossible, against 58% for Macron, she will lose the election.
“But if 90% of the people who said they would vote Le Pen do it, and at the same time only 65% of the people who said they would vote Macron actually do it, then Marine Le Pen wins with a score of 50.07%.”
His argument is backed by widespread dissatisfaction with the failure of either of the two main parties, Les Républicains and Parti Socialiste, to make through to the second round after the first round on April 23.
Voters from both sides have said they will not vote for Ms Le Pen because of her Front National party’s extreme right views and many have said they would not vote for Mr Macron of En Marche! because of his role as a minister under President Hollande.
Mr Galam said the rise of the hashtag #sansmoile7mai (without me on May 7) also gave credence to the argument. Another consideration was the fact that people who said they would vote for Mr Macron to stop Ms Le Pen winning – pour faire barrage or present a front republicain – would drop out if they faced much difficulty in voting.
“For many of them it is a big pill to take to vote for Macron and it goes against their real views.”
