Confinement in France had ‘massive impact’ on Covid-19
Confinement in France has had a “massive impact” on reducing the spread of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - which causes Covid-19 - a new study shows, with infection rates dropping by 84% since lockdown began.
The study was published online today (Tuesday April 21) by a group of senior epidemiologist researchers at medical institute l’Institut Pasteur, health agency Santé Publique France and health research organisation l’Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (Inserm).
It showed a series of “snapshots” of the state of the epidemic in France, and showed what it called “the massive impact” confinement has had on the spread of the virus.
The data showed that before confinement, each ill person infected on average 3.3 more people. After confinement, this dropped to 0.5 - a reduction of 84%.
Around 5.7% of the French population will have been infected by the start of deconfinement on May 11, the study also showed. This is equivalent to 3.7 million people.
A graph of the findings, published by Le Monde newspaper (below) shows how infection rates gradually slowed after confinement was imposed on March 17.
(Graph: Le Monde)
The study also broke down the projected infection rate by region.
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Ile-de-France has the highest rate, at 12.3%, just ahead of Grand-Est on 11.8%; while Nouvelle-Aquitaine has the lowest at 1.4%, just behind Brittany (1.8%) and Pays de la Loire (1.9%).
(Map: Le Monde)
The data up until April 14 shows a clear drop in the number of people being admitted to intensive care everyday after confinement was imposed. This reached 700 per day at the end of March, and had dropped to just 200 by mid-April.
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The researchers estimated that between 1,370-1,900 intensive care beds will be occupied by May 11, compared to more than 5,600 today.
The number of admissions in intensive care is seen as a general marker of the state of the health system.
Simon Cauchemez, epidemiologist researcher at Institut Pasteur and research lead on the study, said: “There is still some uncertainty around these figures, with quite large variations. But whether we’re talking 5% or 10%, it doesn’t change much for the next steps.
“The objective is to be able to see, several weeks in advance, if we continue on this trajectory, this is what we can expect in terms of the number of [intensive care] admissions.”
But while the prediction of 5.7% is equivalent to 3.7 million people, it is far from the 70% necessary to achieve herd immunity among the population, the report said.
It read: “Our results strongly suggest that, without a vaccine, herd immunity alone will be insufficient to prevent a second wave at the end of confinement. Effective control measures will need to be maintained beyond May 11.”
Researchers used a mix of data, including the numbers of hospital deaths in France, as well as the studies of the Diamond Princess - the cruise ship that was placed in quarantine off the coast of Japan in the early stages of the epidemic. All of those passengers were tested for Covid-19, allowing researchers to clearly see the mortality rate of those infected.
