Economy 'to grow by 2% this year'
Official forecast seen as optimistic as foreign trade deficit widens further
The French economy will grow by 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, the Bank of France predicted in its monthly business survey.
Order books have expanded and appeared to be above normal, while stocks of finished products "are close to the desired level", adds the Bank.
"The business leaders forecast for February confirm the continued growth at a pace perhaps a bit more moderate than in January."
The government forecasts that GDP will grow two per cent this year, although almost all economists and international institutions think Paris is being optimistic. Most predict an average growth of 1.5 per cent this year, in line with that of 2010.
The state budget deficit stood at €148.8 billion in 2010, against €138.0 billion at the same date in 2009, according to the Budget Ministry.
This figure is consistent with the estimate, announced in mid-January by the Budget Minister, François Baroin.
Meanwhile, the foreign trade deficit has grown by €7.2 billion in 2010 compared to the previous year.
The deficit came out last year to €51.44 billion against €44.22 billion a year earlier, reflecting an increase in the energy bill of €7.9 billion owing to a increase in import volumes, higher oil prices and the depreciation of the euro.
"Energy costs alone do not explain our deficits: we failed to take advantage of the dynamism of global trade to truly improve our positions," said Pierre Lellouche, the Foreign Trade Secretary, who pointed out that French exports had increased in line with world trade as a whole last year.
French exports have indeed rebounded 13.5 per cent in 2010 to €392,520,000,000, after a contraction of 17.1 per cent in 2009 with the recession. Imports, for their part,
reached €443.96 billion, up 13.8 per cent after falling 17.6 per cent in 2009.
France, the minister said, is the fifth largest exporter in the world, but its market share by value, measured in dollars, fell last year to 3.5 per cent against 3.8 per cent in 2009.
The trade deficit of France reached a record €56 billion in 2008, when the credit crunch bit and oil prices soared. France last recorded a surplus in 2002 of €3.5 billion.
