France heatwave: what to expect in next few days as intense heat returns

A third heatwave in as many months is already beginning to impact France with several departments under heightened canicule warnings at the start of the week. 

Expected to last until at least the end of this week, forecasters predict essentially every department will see temperatures peak at 35C or above, with highs of 40C in the south and south-west. 

The rising heat will be accompanied by extremely calm conditions, with only sporadic cloud coverage in the north and west. 

Rain is not forecast until Friday (July 10) and even then is currently only expected to fall as light showers in the Pyrénées and Massif Central. 

Monday July 6 

Conditions are already very warm after rising temperatures over the weekend. 

Calm skies across the country and plentiful sunshine will increase the feel of the heatwave. 

As a reminder, temperature readings are taken in the shade so being outside in direct sunlight can feel hotter than what the thermometer reads. 

There are already 16 departments facing heightened heatwave (canicule) warnings, mostly in the west and the south of the country. 

Aside from the English Channel, essentially all of France will see highs of 30C and up, rising to 38C in the south-west. 

It is possible that highs of 40C are already hit today in the south-west. 

Advice on how to stay cool is available here, and check on how to register vulnerable people on local heatwave registers here. 

Tuesday July 7

Conditions will continue on Tuesday, with temperatures remaining largely similar to the start of the week. 

Exact models differ, but La Chaîne Météo (owned by Le Figaro) is forecasting highs of 42C in the south-west, which could break all-time records in some departments. 

State forecaster Météo France however believes Tuesday’s weather will be less intense than Monday, and fewer areas will see peaks of 40C or more (see the map above). 

As of Monday morning, heatwave warnings remain limited to the south-west, Atlantic coast, and south. 

This is because overnight temperatures across the north, east, and parts of the centre remain cool, and high night-time temperatures are needed for canicule warnings to be issued. 

Wednesday July 8 

The pattern of the heatwave continues in midweek – the English Channel will remain the only part of the country below 30C, as temperatures become progressively warmer moving south. 

Highs of 35C in Paris, up to 38C in Bordeaux and Lyon, and again 40C or above in the south-west are all forecast, alongside sunny, dry conditions. 

These may also increase the risk of wildfires across the south, as dry vegetation, the Mistral and Tramontane winds, and the hot weather combine.

Note that both the weather and forest fire risk maps are only available one day in advance, and are not yet published for Wednesday onwards. 

Residents in areas facing heatwave conditions should regularly check both maps from Météo France for updates.

Thursday July 9 

Sunny skies and calm conditions provide the perfect ground for the heatwave to continue, and almost all of the country may face heatwave warnings by Thursday with some areas potentially on a red-level alert. 

Temperatures may rise by 1C or 2C, particularly in the north as the warmer nights and the heat-dome effect of the calm anti-cyclone air above France continue to take effect. 

La Chaîne Météo again forecasts record-breaking temperatures in the south-west of up to 43C by the end of the week. 

In several inland areas, midweek temperatures will reach at least 15C above average for the season.

Friday July 10 and onwards 

Temperatures will remain much the same, if not slightly higher, on Friday. 

Rain across the Pyrénées and Massif Central is currently not forecast to develop into storms, and will therefore bring little relief from the heat, although it may temporarily drop temperatures across the south by a couple of degrees. 

The north will remain firmly trapped under the heatwave, with highs of 35C and above in Normandy, Brittany, and the east near the German Border. 

While it is difficult to predict how long the heatwave will last, Météo France is forecasting highs of 30C across the country throughout the weekend, accompanied by several pockets of rain.

While temperatures are slightly lower than throughout the week, they are still well above typical for the season, and if they come to fruition will see heatwave conditions continue. 

For its part, La Chaîne Météo believes national average temperatures will drop over the weekend, and by July 14 be around 4C cooler than the peak of the heatwave.

However, these temperatures are still well above seasonal norms.