Is France heading for another cold wave this month?
Predictions come amid unseasonably mild weather for much of January
Polar air is set to bring snow and frost to the north-east of France
Andi Po / Shutterstock
Snow, frost, and ice could arrive back in France this month, with polar air and a cold front from Siberia and Scandinavia forecast to hit the country, particularly in Paris and the north-east.
Meteorologists have predicted that temperatures will drop in the coming days as the anticyclone approaches, bringing morning frosts and possible episodes of snow, particularly in the east, peaking on January 25 and 26.
A full-blown ‘cold snap’?
Despite dropping temperatures, most forecasts have stopped short of announcing a full-blown ‘cold wave (vague de froid)’, and instead say that conditions are likely to revert closer to more seasonal norms.
The coming weekend is expected to be “unsettled and quite cold”, but it is unlikely to be “excessive”, said Regis Crepet of La Chaîne Météo, to Le Figaro. “We are simply returning to a colder, more wintry pattern,” he said. “[There is] no evidence to suggest that we are heading for [an official] cold wave.”
An official ‘vague de froid’ must meet certain precise criteria to be considered as such, states Météo France on its website.
This includes:
The coming cold is instead expected to be “more moderate”, forecasters have said, with temperatures just slightly lower than seasonal averages. The national average is expected to hover around 4-5C, Mr Crepet said, although nothing is 100% sure.
The uncertainty comes from “air mass conflicts”, he said, causing “a tug-of-war between cold, dry air coming from central and eastern Europe on one side, and warm, humid air coming from the Atlantic Ocean”.
If the cold, dry air moves towards the west, the more temperatures will drop and snow will occur over France. However, depending on the location of the jet stream, a forecast of snow can easily become rain, with frost thawing quickly.
Unsettled weather most likely
Overall, this “tug-of-war” is likely to cause the weather to be unsettled, rather than unusually cold.
Snow is expected in the mountains but there is also likely to be much wind and rain at lower altitudes.
Already, on Tuesday 20, the departments of Hérault and Aude were issued an orange alert for flooding by Meteo France. Today (Wednesday 21), Finistère and Morbihan are also on orange alert for flooding.
Météo France will continue to monitor the situation and will announce if particularly cold temperatures start to appear more likely. Yet, it states that genuine cold waves have become less common in France, and even those that do appear tend to last less time than in previous decades.
The forecast of cold and unsettled conditions comes after the country has seen unseasonably mild temperatures for much of the month, after the colder days at the end of 2025 and the very start of 2026.
