“The events of recent months have been chaotic and unpredictable and I don’t suppose they have done Britain’s reputation abroad any good,” said the crossbench peer and former diplomat.
“There’s been a lot of inability to decide and Parliament has been clearer on what it doesn’t want than what it does want, and that remains the case.”
There will be UK local elections on May 2, and then, probably, the EU elections on May 23.
In the meantime, Lord Ricketts saw little chance of the UK government and opposition coming to an agreement, via cross-party talks, on a mutually-acceptable form of Brexit, with changes to the political declaration (PD) on the future relationship.
“The government wants Labour to support the current deal and Labour wants the government to shift a lot towards a softer Brexit.
“There’s still a big gap and I guess there won’t be an agreed position, so it will be back to seeing if the prime minister can scrape together enough votes for a minor variant of her deal before May 23. Assuming that doesn’t happen, we’ll have EU elections.”
He said to allow for a fourth vote on the deal, there would probably need to be at least some minor change to the PD.
“Mrs May will then probably say ‘If you want to try to avoid having the elections and humiliation for the Conservative Party, you should vote for my deal’.”
Assuming that fails, the EU elections will then be “a kind of referendum on the government’s handling of Brexit and polarising”, Lord Ricketts said.
“I guess there will be quite a big turnout for Farage, tapping into the anger there is about the government not having delivered, but also for the Remain and People’s Vote supporters. If a million can march in London and six million can sign a petition to revoke, there may be a big turnout for the Independent Group [also known as Change UK].
“If the Conservatives lose badly, that may accelerate a change of prime minister.”
Lord Ricketts (pictured left) said that by the time of the Conservative Party conference in early October, there may well be a new prime minister, which means the EU does not know who it will be dealing with. Although Mrs May has said she wants to see the deal through, if no deal is agreed by October, there will be “strong pressure” on her to step down.
We are, therefore, heading into “a very uncertain few months in British politics”, he said.
If the Conservatives replace their leader, that person will automatically become prime minister.
“It does increase the pressure that there should be another election some time, as the new prime minister would not have their own mandate.
“But I think it’s unlikely there would be either an election or another referendum between now and October. I wish there was momentum towards another referendum, but I don’t feel it. I think the likelihood is the deadlock in Parliament will drag on.
“The trench warfare is likely to continue, and the risk is it continues to October. Then that really will be a hard deadline and I don’t think the European side will want another extension.
“They bent over backwards already, and did it on condition we use it well and build a consensus for something. If we haven’t, they’ll say it’s time to leave.
“We’ll be back to hard Brexit or no Brexit, the only benefit being a bit more time to prepare, but at the moment preparations have somewhat been put on hold as everyone hopes some deal will come out.
“Of course, it’s possible that the deal will squeak through, or a cross-party agreement comes out – but it’s dangerous to assume we can have another extension in October.”
Revocation of article 50 is also still possible, he said.
“The awfulness of a no-deal crash-out will still be just as bad as it is now, but if it happens it will be pretty traumatic. And if a lot of pro-Leave MEPs have been elected in the meantime, it will make the politics of that all the more difficult.”
