Warm, but wet: forecasters give predictions for autumn weather in France

Following a summer of unprecedented heat in France, many have been looking forward to cooler temperatures with the approach of autumn - which officially begins today. 

However, while the threat of extreme heatwaves has largely gone, the unseasonably warm weather could last until the end of the year. At the same time, drought concerns should be eased by a wetter-than-usual end of the year.

These are the latest predictions for the coming months, based on certain weather models. 

The forecasts come from La Chaîne Météo, owned by Le Figaro, and give predictions over expected conditions in October, November, and December. 

Major changes may also be caused by the El Niño phenomenon, a weather pattern expected to bring warm and wet conditions to Europe this winter and which is expected to reach its peak effect by the end of the year. 

The weather pattern could also see several severe storms hit the continent. 

There are a number of other factors at play, however.

“El Niño is expected to continue influencing global climate patterns this autumn and early winter. However, its impact on Europe remains indirect and highly variable; it cannot, on its own, determine the weather in France,” said the forecaster. 

“Developments will depend primarily on atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and the positioning of major pressure systems.”

Temperatures set to remain above average for end of year

The forecaster believes that warm conditions will continue, particularly at the end of the year.

It gives October a 45% chance of being warmer-than-average (and a 25% chance of being cooler-than-average). 

However in November it gives a 65% chance of conditions being warmer-than-average (10% chance of it being cooler) and in December a 60% chance of being warmer-than-usual (and a 15% chance of being cooler-than-average). 

In October “mild conditions are expected to prevail, with temperatures averaging around 1C above normal. The return of Atlantic weather fronts may be delayed, allowing high-pressure systems to remain dominant.”

November and December would also see temperatures remain around 1C above usual readings, however a return to normal levels of rainfall is expected, likely exceeding normal amounts. 

While October forecasts are roughly split on expected precipitation levels – a 35% chance of a drier season, 35% chance of a wetter one, and 30% of typical levels – sustained rainfall should return at the end of the year.

There is a 55% chance of a wetter than usual season in November, and a 45% chance in December. 

Crucially, this will come not from occasional violent storms (although they are still possible) but sustained rainfall typical of the season, allowing soil moisture levels to recover and rain to permeate to refill aquifers.

This much-needed rain will help France’s aquifers return to normal levels, hopefully filling up before next summer. Currently, the majority of France is facing water restrictions to conserve dwindling water supplies. 

It is worth noting that the forecaster’s predictions are only preliminary, and much can change in the coming months, particularly if El Niño is powerful. 

More information will be available at the start of October, when state forecaster Météo France publishes its monthly look-ahead, covering the coming three months.