France 2027 vote: New poll shows Le Pen and Mélenchon extending leads

A final round run-off between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon is looking more likely, with a new poll showing both leaders extending their lead in the race for the 2027 presidential election. 

In turn, centrist candidate Edouard Philippe and centre-left Raphaël Glucksmann have seen their support drop, and David Lisnard on the right-wing would gain 9% of the vote if he ran.

The poll, conducted between November 3 and 5*, would see Ms Le Pen, representing the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), receive between 34% to 36% of the vote.

Mr Mélenchon of the far-left La France Insoumise  (LFI) would receive between 18% and 19%, depending on the make-up of the opposition candidates.

This largely tracks with a compilation of recent polls, almost all of which see Mr Mélenchon in second place behind Ms Le Pen. 

Centrist and right-wing candidates squeezed

The new Harris poll sees Mr Philippe receiving between 11% and 14% of the vote in certain scenarios, down slightly from previous highs. 

Gabriel Attal, running in instances where Mr Philippe was absent, would gain between 9% to 10%, or 6% with both running (a combination that also saw Mr Philippe receive his lowest overall share).

Mr Glucksmann in turn would receive between 11% and 13%. 

The poll tested five scenarios, including instances where right-wing David Lisnard participated. He received 9% of the vote in both instances, above fellow right-wing candidate Bruno Retailleau. 

A primary between the centrist and right-wing candidates has been proposed. 

The poll does not account for the newly-announced candidacy of five-time Olympic gold medalist Teddy Riner. Riner officially entered the race this week, as did Éric Zemmour, leader of the far-right Reconquête party, who announced his candidacy on Tuesday, 10 November.

Alongside voting preferences, the poll tracked the most important issues for voters when choosing who to vote for.

The cost of living was far and away the most important factor, with 58% of respondents saying it influenced their choice. This was followed by healthcare (38%), immigration (36%), taxes (30%) and pensions (29%).

Far-left programme announced 

The poll was conducted prior to the LFI policy announcement on November 7.

The party’s ‘L’Avenir en commun’ (the common future) manifesto was announced by Mr Mélenchon, and is the party’s official programme for the spring 2027 election.

Mr Mélenchon outlined an ambitious manifesto, with a number of radical policies. 

These include:

• Increasing the net minimum wage to €1,700

• Overturning the 2023 pension reform and eventually lowering the retirement age to 60

• Gradually reducing the working week to 32 hours

• Enforcing a maximum salary ratio for business of 1:20 (meaning a CEO could not earn more than 20 times the lowest-paid worker) 

• Phasing out nuclear reactors and aiming for 100% renewable energy

• Creating a ‘single-parent family’ scheme with additional discounts on transport and cultural activities

• Increasing civil servant salaries and boosting housing benefits by up to 10%

• Ending the current Fifth Republic and creating a new Sixth Republic with increased democratic controls and a new constitution

• Leaving NATO’s integrated military command, before gradually leaving NATO entirely

To pay for the programme, the party would: 

• Limit inheritance to €12 million, with all other funds taken by the state

• Reimplement a form of France’s old wealth tax (ISF)

• Introduce a new ‘Zucman’ style wealth-tax

• Increase the number of tax brackets to 14

• Push to freeze or cancel over €100 billion of French debt held by the Banque de France 

There are also some policies directed at foreign residents in France.

The party has committed to ending France’s current policy of offering foreign residents residency cards with shorter validity periods, replaced with a default 10-year residency card. 

It does not, however, state the eligibility criteria for these cards, or list all cards that would be replaced. 

The party would overturn the recent restrictions on acquiring citizenship, although it is unclear if this includes the tougher language rules. It would ask prefectures to ignore the circulars sent out by Mr Retailleau when he was Interior Minister.

There is a commitment to “facilitating access to French nationality” in the party's programme, but without outlining exactly what this entails, as well as reinstating jus soli (birthright citizenship) for all children born in France. 

You can read the full manifesto on the party’s website. 

*Poll conducted online by Toluna-Harris Interactive from November 3 to 5, 2026, among 2,101 individuals registered on electoral rolls, drawn from a sample of 2,436 people representative of the French population aged 18 and older