Diesel price at lowest since mid-March but do shortages loom?
Fuel supplies may enter ‘red zone’ in July or August due to increased summer usage
Fuel prices remain significantly higher than this time last year
Igor Paszkiewicz/Shutterstock
Diesel prices in France have reached their lowest since mid-March after dropping around 8c in the last week.
While this spells good news for drivers, warnings over potential shortages across the summer may later see prices climb just as quickly as they have fallen.
Average diesel (gazole) prices in France at the start of June were €2.038 per litre, according to price comparison site Carbu.com.
This is the cheapest since March 10 (€2.021 per litre), and significantly below the peak on April 9 (€2.393 per litre).
However, June 2026 prices are still more than 28% higher than this time last year.
Diesel is now cheaper than SP95 and 98 petrol, a reverse from the position in March and April.
SP98 costs €2.079 per litre on average, and SP95 €2.044. While this is a fall of around -2% in a week, it is still 15% and 20% higher respectively than this time last year.
Several factors have contributed to the price drop, including service station giant TotalEnergies extending its fuel caps on both diesel and petrol to the end of June.
In addition, a global increase in production of fuel outside of the Middle East has helped to partially continue supplies still unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Finally, drivers have generally reduced fuel usage in response to higher prices, making supplies more plentiful.
Renewed warnings over shortages
Despite a global effort to replenish supplies however, there is a risk of a summer fuel shortage.
Petrol and diesel supplies face falling into a shortage ‘red zone’ in July or August, predicted head of the International Energy Agency Dr Fatih Birol.
He considers the current crisis worse than the effects of the 1973 oil embargo, 1979 Iranian Revolution and 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine combined, he added.
Dr Birol made his comments during a talk at the UK think tank Chatham House, where he said a ‘buffer’ of global oil reserves released in early March by the Agency and several other countries had counteracted the initial risk of global shortages.
However, the impact of these additional reserves would be “coming to the end,” in June and July, and increased production elsewhere does not account for the lack of crude oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
“At the end of June, beginning of July, the travel season begins and, in general, oil consumption increases,” Dr Birol said.
“This may be difficult, and we may be entering the red zone in July or August if we do not see some improvement in the situation.”
Alongside increased fuel consumption by drivers using their vehicles for summer holidays, airlines risk jet fuel shortages, and the problems may also extend to agriculture and foodstuffs.
“Many farmers will have difficulties in this context to continue as they do in a normal year, and this may feed into higher food prices. And higher food prices, together with the higher oil prices may push up inflation.”
Only a fully open Strait of Hormuz – the narrow passage accounts for around one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies – would alleviate the risk of shortage, Dr Birol said.
Dr Birol said in April that Europe only had ‘around six weeks’ of jet fuel supplies and that cancellations were imminent. As of June, airlines including Ryanair expect to be able to fly the vast majority of their summer schedule.
Other experts have said the impact of the oil crisis on inflation will be less than the effects of Covid-19 or the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
