‘French MP elections are likely now - and far-right set to make gains’

Sébastien Lecornu has resigned as prime minister of France after only 27 days in office, plunging France into fresh political chaos.

He was the fourth prime minister to take the helm since the president dissolved the Assemblée nationale in June 2024, an unprecedented situation under the Fifth Republic.

The Connexion asked Luc Gras, a political expert and frequent commentator to mainstream French press who is author of ‘La démocratie en péril’ about the situation and the options now.

“The current situation is grotesque,” he said. 

“Emmanuel Macron does not understand how the Fifth Republic works. He has been governing by himself and himself only, casting away any consideration for France’s political parties. He has to do something to unclog the system.” 

The Fifth Republic was designed with a system of checks and balances to avoid just such a situation, which plagued the Fourth Republic (1946-1958), only to be thrown off-rails by the decision to dissolve parliament last year, he added.

He now sees three possible scenarios, listed below in his order of his perceived probability.

• Parliament is dissolved again

MPs at the Assemblée nationale are currently split between three blocs of roughly equal size representing left, centre and right, and far-right leanings. 

The far-right Rassemblement National is the biggest political force with 123 MPs. 

Mr Macron’s party Ensemble pour la République ranks second with 91 with far-left La France Insoumise third with 71. 

However, several parties are in alliances across the Assemblée.

A dissolution would make more sense today than in June 2024, Mr Gras said, as the current split makes governing extremely difficult.

It is “very likely” that the Rassemblement National would gain more MPs if new elections were held, Mr Gras said, estimating that their new number could be around 200. 

An absolute majority - 289 MPs - looks very difficult for any group to reach, he added.

• Nomination of an eighth prime minister

One of the driving forces behind Mr Macron’s tactics throughout his second term is an attempt to avoid the far-right gaining political power.

This is not limited to success in the legislative elections to return MPs, as the president has repeatedly said he does not want a far-right politician to succeed him as president.

Some argue that Mr Macron’s dissolution of parliament in June 2024 following the success of the far-right in the European Elections was an attempt to thwart them gaining further popularity before 2027, challenging them to run a successful legislative campaign.

The last four prime ministers appointed by Mr Macron all came from the right of the political spectrum, which can be seen as appointments to appease demands from far-right MPs.

Mr Macron could now nominate a prime minister further to his right, Mr Gras said, mentioning Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau who is known for his strict stance on immigration and social issues.

But he could equally nominate someone from within the socialist ranks, Mr Gras added.

The Nouveau Front Populaire - an alliance of several left-leaning parties - came first in the July 2024 elections, but Mr Macron did not choose a prime minister from that coalition, causing widespread anger among the far-left La France Insoumise.

The alliance has ruptured in the last year, however could come together to push once more for a left-wing prime minister.

At the same time, the Socialist Party, who has said it is open to working with Mr Macron, are perhaps unlikely to join the far-left again.

• President resigns

Mr Macron repeatedly said he will not resign. The last time he did was on August 29, days before François Bayrou handed in his resignation.

“A few days before he dissolved parliament, Mr Macron said he would never do this,” said Mr Gras. “(But) everything is possible in politics.”

Far-left parties have mooted Mr Macron’s resignation for some time now.

“If he thinks he no longer has any leverage, everything is possible,” Mr Gras said.