Fewer flights are scheduled to and from France this summer
than in previous years, with thousands already cut.
Aviation bodies warn more reductions are likely as airlines
deal with rising fuel costs on top of raised ticket taxes. French low-cost
company Transavia has already said it is cancelling around 400 flights in May and
June, linked to the fuel hikes
The warning comes as the EU says summer holidays may be disrupted if jet fuel shortages intensify, following tensions in the Strait of Hormuz – a key supply route for Europe.
“Unfortunately, it's very likely that many people's holidays will be affected, either by flight cancellations or very, very expensive tickets,” the EU energy commissioner said.
Up to 40% of jet fuel used in Europe normally passes through the strait, but shipments have been disrupted for weeks.
In France, the crisis is compounding what industry groups say is an already weakened market following increases in plane ticket taxes since 2024.
The Union des Aéroports Français (UAF) says there are 3,000 fewer return flights on sale this summer compared to 2024 (prior to the latest tax rises), representing a loss of around one million potential passengers.
“This is what we predicted,” said UAF general delegate Nicolas Paulissen. “We said, be careful, because airlines will prioritise the most profitable routes, especially in a context where there is a shortage of new planes. They’ll cut the less profitable routes.”
The cuts are not limited to France.
German carrier Lufthansa has also announced the cancellation of 20,000 flights by the end of October and the suspension of its CityLine brand. Canadian airline Air Transat has likewise cut 6% of its total flights.
Programmes planned
The first effects were modest as airlines had already planned their programmes, but he said “the main impact has been on winter 2025-2026 and especially summer 2026”, meaning passengers are likely to see fewer routes and reduced frequencies.
UAF says France’s aviation sector has recovered more slowly since the Covid-19 crisis than several neighbours, as low-costs have given a greater priority to countries such as Spain and Italy, seen as more profitable.
It is calling for “an urgent lowering of taxation”, saying France’s economic attractiveness and competitiveness, as well as regional connectivity, is at stake.
The changes have been particularly visible among low-cost carriers, notably Ryanair. While it did not fully follow through on threats to halve its French network, it has made significant cuts, including:
Closure of its Bordeaux base in 2024;
Withdrawal from Paris-Vatry in March 2025;
Winter 2025-2026 exits from Bergerac, Brive and Strasbourg (with Bergerac partially reinstated this summer);
Withdrawal from Clermont-Ferrand in March 2026;
Cuts to certain international routes, including Dublin-Rodez.
Smaller airports bear the brunt
“It is mainly smaller regional airports that are affected,” Mr Paulissen said.
They are particularly vulnerable due to reliance on low-cost airlines, which have low profit margins. Spain’s Volotea also announced cuts to dozens of mainland French routes towards Corsica, Italy and Spain.
Some other airlines are adapting flight networks, including Air France, which has been “withdrawing from regional airports” according to UAF.
Some airlines have shifted capacity away from domestic routes towards European ones, in part to avoid paying ticket taxes twice on internal flights.
This comes as fuel costs have risen from $700-$800 per tonne to $1,900. Fuel now represents up to 45% of aircraft operating costs, compared with a previous 25-30%.
“The increase is extremely severe for airlines,” Mr Paulissen said. He warned further route cuts – even at short notice – cannot be ruled out if prices remain high.
Air Journal reports Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary as stating kerosene stocks are reliable through May, but he does not know what will happen if the crisis continues beyond that. He suggested some cancellations are possible after that.
He has advised people to book now, as prices are liable to continue rising (at least 3% over the season; likely more if pressure mounts). He also claimed some smaller low-cost airlines may face bankruptcy.
In this context, it is not only low-cost airlines that are affected, Mr Paulissen said. Germany’s Lufthansa, notably, is cutting 20,000 flights from its summer season.
Across Europe, airlines and airport groups are calling for emergency measures. Airlines UK urged British ministers to prepare contingency plans in the event of supplies worsening.
Renewable energy
The European Commission is putting out advice including asking countries to use as much renewable energy as possible to ensure aviation fuel supplies continue.
Some airlines have called on the EU to organise joint fuel purchasing to secure supplies, similar to schemes used for masks during Covid-19 or gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
European airports group ACI Europe has also renewed criticism of aviation taxes.
“We urged the French government to reconsider the plans to introduce a higher aviation tax repeatedly over the years – to no avail,” director general Olivier Jankovec told The Connexion.
“It comes as no surprise that the French aviation market has suffered consequences from this tax penalty. Raising aviation taxes is the poster child of self-harm to a national aviation sector.”
He added: “Given the pressures on the aviation sector stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and ensuing spikes in energy prices, including jet fuel, we urgently call on all European governments to suspend aviation taxes to cushion price impacts for consumers.”
France’s airline workers federation, FNAM, said they share UAF’s analysis that France is becoming less attractive to airlines.
General delegate Laurent Timsit said: “The rise in costs in 2025, notably taxation via the increase in ticket tax, amounted to €1.35billion.
“...We have asked the French authorities for the national taxation that weighs on the aviation sector in France to be reduced.”
UAF’s Mr Paulissen said without swift action, further damage to connectivity is likely.
However, any change is likely to take time, typically requiring inclusion in the annual finance bill (unless there is a special ‘rectificative’ finance bill voted through quickly).
“There will be losses before then,” Mr Paulissen said. “What worries me is it’s starting already, even though we are only a few weeks into the [Middle East] crisis.”
Despite the volatile situation, passengers remain protected under EU rules.
In the case of cancelled flights, airlines must offer a choice between a refund or re-routing to their destination (including on later flights). They must also provide assistance such as meals and accommodation, if needed.
However, extra financial compensation on top may not apply if the cancellation is due to “extraordinary circumstances” beyond the airline’s control – which could include severe fuel shortages linked to geopolitical crises.
