A stormy start to the week is expected in the south of France with several departments facing heightened alerts.
As the week progresses, storms will peter out in the south but conditions will worsen in the north.
A temperature spike at the start of the week will quickly be replaced by falling temperatures, and by the end of the week it may be nearly 3C lower than the national average.
Monday May 19
Powerful storms are forecast in the south and south-west.
Moving in across the Pyrénées, the storms may reach as far as Lyon and the Alps as well as covering much of central France.
Hail is expected across most of the south-west – and particularly around Toulouse – and up to 70 mm of rain will fall in some areas on Monday alone.
Winds of up to 110 km/h are expected.
As of 08:00 this morning, nine departments are at a heightened tier-three orange warning for stormy weather:
Lot, Tarn-et-Garonne, Gers, Hautes-Pyrénées, Haute-Garonne, Ariège, Aude, Tarn and Aveyron.
This is the second-highest warning given by state forecaster Météo France, and, according to guidelines, those in the affected departments should remain indoors and keep up to date with local weather information.
Updates to these alerts will be provided several times per day, so it is advised to check the official Météo France website as the storms progress.
In the north and the south-east the weather should be mostly calm, if slightly cloudy.
Highs of 24C in the north-east, and 25C in Provence (despite the storms) are balanced out by temperatures of around 16C in Normandy and the south-west.
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Tuesday May 20
The risk of thunderstorms will spread eastwards, covering most of the country below Strasbourg and down to Nice.
Areas across the south and east are likely to see rain, and while there is a risk of heavy thunderstorms, these are unlikely to last long in any one location.
Currently, Météo France has not placed any department on a heightened warning over stormy weather for Tuesday, although this is subject to change.
Coastal areas of the south-west may be free from rain, although further inland a second bout of drizzly conditions is possible. Storms are unlikely.
The north of France and areas along the English Channel will again remain calm if cloudy, with highs of 24C in Paris.
Wednesday May 21
Conditions of the preceding weeks – generally calm in the north but disturbed in the south – will briefly switch back to more traditional norms on Wednesday.
While a small risk of rain will remain in the south, conditions should be mostly dry and sunny in the area, whereas a series of rainclouds will cross the English Channel from the British Isles and sweep into France.
Starting in Normandy in the morning, the clouds will sweep east and south, covering most areas north of Bordeaux / Lyon with persistent drizzle.
Temperatures of 23C along the Mediterranean will be cancelled out by cooler conditions under the rain – down to around 14C in some parts of Normandy – bringing the national average temperature to just below seasonal norms.
Thursday May 22
It is unclear exactly what Thursday’s conditions will be in the south.
These British clouds may fizzle out overnight on Wednesday across central France, leading to a dry if cool day across most of the country.
However, there is a risk they continue to push further into the south, down to the Alps and Pyrénées.
If this is the case, they are likely to bring snow at altitudes of 1,800m and above, and bring drizzle to areas affected by storms on Monday and Tuesday.
The north is unlikely to see rain in either scenario.
In both cases, temperatures will continue to drop, reaching roughly 19C across the country although higher along the Mediterranean.
Friday May 23
Conditions on Friday should be mostly calm, although a risk of light rain persists in the south-west and along the Mediterranean.
A series of winds mean there will be a chill in the air, and frost is expected early in the morning across central areas.
Skies will be largely cloudy even in areas where no rain is likely, and temperatures will drop further, down to around 15C in the north, and between 18C and 20C in the south.
