UK could rejoin EU in coming decade, says French think tank expert

This interview is part of a series by The Connexion on the UK Prime Minister’s recent comments about rejoining the EU, how likely a return is and what form it might take.  

An expert at two leading think tanks says the EU/UK summit on November 20 is an ideal opportunity to bring the UK closer to the EU. 

It could be a “new horizon-setting summit”, said Sébastien Maillard, special adviser to the Jacques Delors Institute and associate fellow at Chatham House, who told The Connexion he has observed a gradual warming of UK attitudes towards the EU.

The warming began under Rishi Sunak before continuing under Keir Starmer, he said.

“But the main change between Starmer and Burnham is that Starmer insisted on the ‘red lines’ – a reset, but with no customs union, single market or free movement of people. 

“This created confusion on the continent, because the UK wanted to be treated differently from a third country but at the same time always insisted on the limits.

“What changes now is that Burnham says all options are on the table – that paves the way for a future general election, at the latest in 2029, and sets a possible horizon of rejoining in the coming decade. It shows everything is still possible.”

Starmer had been careful not to upset Brexiters or to contradict the referendum result, Mr Maillard said. 

He added Mr Burnham may have calculated that the priority should now be to prevent more pro-EU Labour voters moving to the Greens, Lib-Dems, SNP or Plaid Cymru – and also to attract young voters, who tend to be Remainers.

“Businesses are also not happy with the situation, seeing a loss of GDP, and 10 years after the referendum they see that the vast majority of imports and exports are still within the single market and ‘Global Britain’ never materialised.

“So, he can be both Labour-friendly and business friendly by speaking about this.”

Asked about the ‘red wall’ Labour Brexit voters that were previously seen as important, he said there has been a “generational shift”, with many of the Brexit voters now ageing and some of them having died.

As for whether there is a political will on the continent to back the UK’s return, he said “right now, it is more a British debate than a European one”, as many EU countries “have other fish to fry”, such as the unrest in France and the coming presidential election next year.

“Having said that, when I speak to French officials and diplomats, they are a bit wary as to how serious this is going to be. Is it just a domestic political debate or will the UK really be preparing its candidacy? 

“And the ones who have dealt with Brexit over the years – Michel Barnier himself and many officials at the Quai d’Orsay or other ministries who engaged in the discussions – are not impatient to reopen them.”

Brexit was a long, painful process for France and “they have to be really sure, if they are going to go through it all again the other way around”, he said.

The UK must also realise that the EU today has changed compared to 2016, in response to such factors as the uncertain relationship with the US, the threat of Russia and the war in Ukraine. It wants to be a “fully-fledged power” in terms of defence and security, strategic autonomy, industrial strategy and “sovereign capabilities”.

“It would be a different, more assertive EU. Would the UK resist this, or on the contrary would it be a compelling reason to rejoin? 

“If the UK says we’re happy to rejoin because it’s a dangerous world and we will be safer, not just for our economy but for the whole rules-based society, and we believe in some kind of European sovereignty, then the UK will be welcomed with open arms.”

Mr Maillard believes ‘halfway models’ would not be satisfying for the UK.

“The UK is a big G7 country and I don’t see the Brits accepting being in the position of Norway or Switzerland and being a rule-taker not a rule-maker. 

“Plus, it has been a member state. It knows it would be putting itself in a worse position than it was in before. It would be politically unjustifiable.

“A customs union, also, obliges the country to follow EU trade policy.”

However, whatever the model chosen, he said “there is a need for the UK and the EU to get much closer in this geopolitical environment”. 

“We will be stronger together. It is great to have Montenegro or Albania perhaps joining one day, but the UK being what it is, it is essential that it should be on the EU side.

“The UK cannot just be like South Korea or Japan. It’s a big country close to the EU, an important, trusted and like-minded partner, and it would be absurd if we end up with a closer relationship with Canada than the UK.”

He said an imminent EU/Canada summit will be followed by the second annual EU/UK summit on November 20.

“I think it will try to fix three technical areas: the plant and animal health agreement, emissions trading and the youth experience scheme [a visa for young people to spend a limited period working, studying or travelling]. 

“But I think it is also seen as a way to relaunch the ‘reset’ because we need new momentum.

“If we are talking about a real geopolitical rapprochement, I hope we see something that shows a will to move ahead.

“So it can be, in a nutshell, a new horizon-setting summit, rather than just one solving ongoing technical negotiations.”

France’s constitution, which was changed in the early 2000s to add tough rules on accepting new EU states, poses a potential future challenge, he said. If a new country wants to join, it normally requires a referendum. 

This can be avoided only if both houses of parliament first approve the alternative procedure by a three-fifths majority, after which the accession must itself be approved by a three-fifths majority of both houses sitting together as Congress.

This was passed by parliament in a context of Turkey’s potential accession, which was causing concern at the time.

However, in the past, France had previously always accepted EU enlargement by ordinary votes of parliament – apart from in 1972, when President Pompidou decided to hold a referendum on the accession of the UK, Ireland, Denmark and Norway, and 68% voted in favour of it.

Mr Maillard said the current rules are now potentially embarrassing as they set a higher bar than any other EU country. 

Also, referendums are seen as “a dangerous gamble” – President Macron has never called one – and the rules for the parliamentary vote are very stringent.

He said he hopes that by the time it becomes relevant, France will have changed this rule, as it could pose problems for other accessions too, such as Balkan countries or Ukraine.

If there was a referendum, he would hope the French would vote ‘yes’, however voting could be influenced by whether France was one of the first or last to ratify. 

If it is last and the rest have accepted, it creates more pressure not to be the one to block the process, he said.

“I do not even want to imagine the impact on the relationship if the French said no.”