Latest polls suggest far-right vs far-left final round for 2027 French presidential election

A recent poll for the 2027 French presidential election suggests a fractious second round, with far-right Marine Le Pen and far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon poised to face off in May. 

The two candidates reached the final round in all possible scenarios regardless of the other candidates running, with Ms Le Pen always finishing first and Mr Mélenchon in second place. 

The poll* was conducted on October 21 - 22, after the major protests of October 17 that were backed (but not organised) by the far-left. Most people were protesting in peaceful demonstrations held across France but violence and looting erupted among fringe groups taking part. 

Many commentators believed that the violence would see support for Mr Mélenchon drop, giving the other candidates close to him – namely centrist Edouard Philippe and Socialist Party-backed Raphaël Glucksmann – a chance to slip into second place.

The far-left party however have cemented their second-place position. 

In a previous iteration of the poll conducted at the end of August to the start of September, Mr Mélenchon only reached the second round if both Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal were running, splitting the centrist vote.

Mr Mélenchon, head of the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) party has been performing well in several recent polls, and is known as a strong campaigner on the electoral trail.

In the last two presidential election campaigns his vote share in polls rose several percentage points in the final months before the elections.

Poll shows tight race

The poll saw Ms Le Pen receive 32% - 33.5% of the vote depending on who was running, with Mr Mélenchon at a steady 17% across all scenarios. 

This suggests that the far-left has a core voter base, and is not picking up votes from elsewhere when other candidates are not present, but that the far-right could gain or lose votes depending on who else is running.

Mr Philippe received 15% of the vote in scenarios where he was standing alone out of the centrist bloc, and 13% when Mr Attal was also running. 

The latter would receive just 4% of the vote in this scenario, but if running alone for the centrist bloc would receive 9.5%. 

A scenario where Mr Attal runs instead of Mr Philippe – albeit an increasingly unlikely one – would benefit other candidates, including Mr Glucksmann, who would receive 15.5% of the vote, and head of the right-wing Les Républicains Bruno Retailleau, who would achieve his highest vote share at 11.5%. 

Ms Le Pen and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) remain well ahead of the pack, and barring a catastrophic collapse are all but certain to enter the second round of the election. 

Despite the strong showing for Mr Mélenchon, there is still no guarantee he will make it to the second round, with several months of the campaign to go. 

Several possible outcomes could still affect the election, including official alliances between Mr Glucksmann and the Greens/Communists. 

Far-left support of protests has not seen drop in popularity

The firm stance of Mr Mélenchon and his LFI compatriots on the protests across France have buoyed the party, despite many analysts initially predicting it could damage his presidential campaign.

The party has been one of the loudest backers of France’s recent protests, including the lycée (pupils aged 15 - 17/18) and the gilets jaunes movements. 

Following the widespread violence and looting on October 17 – and violence during the lycée protests earlier in October – the government and many on the right attacked LFI for supporting the movements, claiming the party was in favour of the violence and chaos that ensued.

The party stood firm, however, denouncing the violence but backing the peaceful protests of pupils and workers, and calling for renewed action on both October 24 (which saw between 410,000 to 800,000 people join marches across France, considerably more peaceful than October 17), and a union-led ‘general mobilisation’ on November 5. 

Continued support for the protests is also present in other groups, including the CGT union and even the Socialist party leader Olivier Faure, who criticised the government for only focusing on the security aspect of October 17 and not the anger causing the movement.

The steadfast support for protesters by Mr Mélenchon has therefore seen his popularity only increase.

Indeed, the same poll for the presidential elections above also assessed people’s opinions on the violence of October 17. 

58% reported feeling anger, 37% expressed concern, and 33% felt shame. At the same time, 81% judged the government responsible for the situation on October 17, followed by radical political groups (79%), left-wing parties (62%), and law enforcement (52%).

Tempering the positivity of the poll for the far-left, however, is a question on the response of politicians. Only 43% of respondents said Ms Le Pen had portrayed a bad attitude following October 17, compared to 71% for Mr Mélenchon. 

What would a far-left victory look like?

Several opinion polls pitting Ms Le Pen and Mr Mélenchon in a hypothetical second-round battle all see the far-right leader victorious.

The far-left would face an uphill battle in a second round against Ms Le Pen, and would need to convince a wide swathe of the political spectrum, some openly hostile to the party, to vote for them.

The concept of the ‘Republican Front’ – all parties banding together to ensure the far-right does not win an election – is unlikely regardless of who makes it to the second round against Ms Le Pen, but is even more likely to collapse if her rival candidate is Mr Mélenchon.

Several opposition groups, including former allies of LFI in Communists have all ruled out forging a new left-wing alliance with the party, and many centrists and those on the right have taken the position of calling LFI ‘extremist’.

This has included calls for a ‘Republican front’ against the LFI as well as the RN, viewing both parties as opposite ends of an extremist coin. 

The most likely scenario would be that many voters who did not back either candidate in the first round simply staying home for the second, as both candidates attempted to posit themselves as the ‘lesser of two evils’ to pick up centrist voters. 

Much has been said over what a far-right victory would look like in France, including for non-citizens in light of the RN’s plans to introduce ‘national preference’ for French citizens in several sectors including housing, benefits, and employment.

In the event of a far-left victory, however, major changes to the fabric of French society are planned in the party’s manifesto. 

Widespread nationalisation of energy and transport, a reduction of the retirement age to 60 years, increasing the minimum wage, and a social housing drive have been previously touted by the party. 

Other more radical ideas posited by the party have included plans to refuse to pay back some of France’s debt to increase available expenditure on social programmes, as well as Mr Mélenchon’s promotion of the idea of ‘créolisation’.

This idea, flying in the face of the far-right’s aims to restrict migration to France, claims that France’s own history of radicalism and colonialism makes its status as a melting pot inevitable, and this should not be shunned but embraced. 

The party promotes both keeping French traditions but also accepting that a ‘new France’ is emerging, shaped by immigration and history. Indeed, the party’s slogan for the 2027 campaign references ‘La Nouvelle France’. 

Its manifesto for 2027, called L'Avenir en commun (the future in common) will be fully released on November 6, and presented by Mr Mélenchon in a rally on November 7. 

The party has said little on how its programme would impact non-citizens in France, and has mainly focused on the social and economic issues it seeks to tackle. 

However, the party is among the most tolerant of immigration into France, and has consistently voted against recent immigration bills. 

When the party does focus on immigration, it typically focuses on people moving to France from former colonies or the global south, as opposed to Britons, Americans, etc. 

It is unlikely, however, that plans for something such as a second-home visa for Britons to bypass Brexit restrictions would be high on the agenda for the party.

The party has previously called for more taxes on high-income individuals, including a return to a wealth tax, and plans to tax French citizens and their assets regardless of where they are to limit tax avoidance by moving income overseas. 

*Poll carried out by Ipsos-BVA-Cesi école d'ingénieurs on October 21 - 22. Poll conducted online, questioning 1,500 people signed up to France’s electoral register