An ambitious plan to see one million European-manufactured heat pumps installed annually in France by 2030 was announced by the French government earlier this month.
It is the cornerstone of wider plans to electrify France’s energy network, replacing old gas boilers from homes.
The government’s announcement came on top of the news of a €240 million aid scheme from state electricity company EDF, which also includes funding for 80,000 heat pump installations.
However, industry experts have cast doubt on the feasibility of the wider heat pump driver, due to current shortages in the sector, expenses for the transformation, the strain on France’s electrical grid, and several other stumbling blocks.
‘Social leasing’ scheme on the way
A major part of the government’s plan is the introduction of a ‘social leasing’ system for the installation of heat pumps (pompe à chaleur), mitigating the cost for lower-income households.
It is yet to be fully confirmed, but sketches for the plan see most of the installation cost offered up front by the government or an energy supplier, and then paid back over three years.
The installation of the pump should immediately cut bills by around half, resulting in homes not having to find extra funding for the payback period, and then after this seeing a reduction in expenses as bills remain low.
This aid will be concurrent with other financial schemes such as MaPrimeRénov’, hoping to encourage households to make the switch.
The announcement has been met with scepticism by some in the sector, who believe it may lead to those with properties unsuitable for heat pump installation to plump for the option, and then be disappointed by the results.
“A heat pump is efficient up to an energy rating of D, or even E… but below that, it is inefficient,” said CEO of Airwell group Laurent Roegel to BFMTV.
With millions of properties in France falling below this on the energy rating scale (Diagnostic de performance énergétique, or DPE), they would be at risk of an expensive installation that ultimately provided only minimal benefits.
Others believe the scheme will fail to produce a dynamic market for heat pumps, and simply act as a static aid.
“This measure is more like financial assistance than a true social leasing program, because unlike cars, there's no second-hand market for heat pumps. Installation and removal costs are too high,” said CEO of the Vaillant group (a heat pump installer) Régis Luttenauer to the same outlet.
Yo-yoing fortunes for heat pump manufacturers
“For heat pumps, we have industrial capacity located throughout the country. More than a dozen factories in France are already producing heat pumps,” said Minister Delegate for Industry Sébastien Martin last week following the wider government announcement.
However, the sector is coming out of a sluggish period, and has complained of a stop-and-start approach to heat pump aid, leading to fluctuating if not decreasing demand.
In 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron initially called for one million French-made heat pumps to be installed by 2027, but this was quickly scaled back.
Manufacturers received some support during and after the Covid-19 crisis, but have since faced mounting issues.
In 2022, 355,000 water-to-air heat pumps (pompes à chaleur air-eau, one of the two main installations alongside air-to-air pumps) were installed across France, but by 2025 this dropped to 185,000.
Air-to-air pumps that act as air conditioners and air heaters are cheaper and more numerous, as they do not provide wider changes to a property's heating infrastructure.
Combined, 1,167,970 heat pump units were sold in 2023, dropping to 941,250 in 2025.
“Our [recent] targets were a mirage,” said Mr Luttenauer.
“We made substantial investments at the time, our market share increased, but we now have excess capacity,” he added, with the company recently restructuring and cutting 250 posts.
More aid demanded for expected demand
However, Mr Luttenauer believes the company can meet renewed demand, if it materialises and is sustainable.
This is the same for Atlantic Group, based in Vendée, another major supplier in the sector.
The company, said to be on the cusp of a €3 billion dollar purchase by a US-Japanese company, is planning to relocate its water-air pump production facilities to France.
This is in part motivated by another round of planned government support for heat pump installation.
New rules set to be announced in September 2026 should clarify how households can partly cover the cost of installation through the use of the energy certificates system (CEE, Certificats d'économie d'énergie).
They would only be available for products produced in the EU, but should become easier to obtain.
Many industry leaders agree the main thing holding the market back is prohibitive installation cost, hence the support for policies that would aid installation feasibility in suitable homes.
“We need to continue supporting households to sustain market momentum. We’re seeing a glimmer of hope now,” said head of PR at Atlantic Group Yves Fanton d’Andon.
Other risks present
Other potential issues with the scheme include a lack of qualified tradespeople, a frequent bottleneck for aid requirements in France.
Installers must be RGE-certified (Reconnu garant de l'environnement) for households to benefit from most aid, although this is a measure that smaller tradespeople often eschew as expensive and time consuming.
If a perceived explosion in installations is expected, the sector must be appropriately ready.
Concerns are also being raised over the frequent issues faced by MaPrimeRénov’, particularly widespread scams.
The renovation scheme, which will see funding for heat pumps retained as part of the drive, has closed and reopened several times over the last 12 months, due to a combination of fraudulent claims and budgetary issues.
In its most recent iteration, funding has been scaled back in several areas.
