French GDP growth higher than expected despite political upheaval

Exports and aerospace industry helped spur 0.5% increase, with France on track to exceed 2025 forecasts

Growth in the aerospace industry helped increase GDP
Published

The French economy is expected to have grown more than initially forecast in the third quarter of 2025, largely driven via a boom in exports. 

According to an early report by statistics body Insee, GDP grew by 0.5% between the second and third quarters of the year. 

The original forecast was for 0.3% growth across the three month period June - September. However, the full report later in the year will confirm the information.

It follows increases of 0.1% in the first quarter, and 0.3% in the second. 

Combined, this is greater than the annual increase of 0.7% expected in 2025, provided the economy does not shrink in the final quarter of the year. 

The positive performance comes despite political uncertainty in France, and follows Insee reporting a growth in household confidence over economic factors. 

The graph below shows historic GDP changes in France since 2023.

Exports drive growth 

Finance Minister Roland Lescure called it “a remarkable performance” for the French economy. 

“Despite political upheavals and international uncertainties, our companies are investing, exporting, and driving the country forward," he announced to AFP.

 "The swift adoption of a budget that preserves the confidence of businesses and households will be crucial to maintaining this momentum,” he added, highlighting the uncertainty around the end-of-year target for the first part of the budget. 

The findings show France’s import and export sectors helped contribute towards growth, despite concerns over the global situation and US tariffs. 

The aerospace industry in particular boosted growth, as sector giant Airbus improved its cycle of deliveries, and increased European defence spending spurred additional revenue.

Investment - particularly from businesses - increased, although income from growth foreign trade has fallen.